HVAC Residential Market

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The 2026 AHR Expo Trend Report shows contractors juggling refrigerant shortages, expiring tax credits, rising heat pump demand, AI tools, and a shrinking workforce. 

As homeowners look to stay comfortable and control costs this winter, a new generation of smart thermostats is stepping up. These devices don’t just manage temperature — they use AI, advanced sensors, and contractor-focused tools to simplify installs, prevent callbacks, and keep systems running efficiently.   

In response to the shift toward low-GWP refrigerants, several manufacturers have introduced convertible coils that are designed to operate with multiple refrigerants.  

Member states double down on heat pump support — aiming to grow economies, create local jobs, and reduce energy costs. 

Pricing across the HVAC/R supply chain continued to drift upward in November

Rushed furnace installations routinely crack heat exchangers, clog gas valves, and create CO risks long before the first heating season is over.

Manufacturers say the “next wave” of growth will be retrofit-friendly systems that drop into existing homes with minimal electrical work.