Trane expects commercial HVAC sales to remain strong in 2026, while residential sales are projected to be soft in the first quarter before improving in the second half of the year.
Residential credits are set to sunset, but commercial geothermal continues to gain momentum thanks to not-yet-expiring tax incentives, innovation, and maturing tech. For HVACR contractors, the next wave of geothermal growth hinges on training and design expertise.
Commercial demand for HVAC equipment grew in Q3, while residential sales fell, due to consumer uncertainty, cooler weather, and the lingering effects of the refrigerant transition.
Some House Democrats are citing a legal technicality as they try to save a federal incentive for high-efficiency residential HVAC equipment. But the Internal Revenue Service has issued guidance that says the 25C credit will not be available for equipment put into service after this year.