The economic environment for HVACR demand seems to be very good. Consumer confidence is high, and stories of homes selling quickly are common. Employment growth persists, and wages are improving. This Goldilocks scenario is very similar to the high points from last year when we were preparing the forecast. We thought the pent-up demand thesis still had some validity, but there would be a difficult comparison after the 2016 heat wave.
This summer, HARDI distributors reported the strongest consistent growth since the easy comparisons following the Great Recession. The National Bureau of Economic Research tells us that ugly downturn existed from 2008 through the middle of 2009. The beginning and end of recessions are not like turning a lamp on and off. The ability to identify our economic prospects is a gradual process, like when the sun is rising or setting. After the economic sun started to rise in 2009, it was not until the back half of 2010 that a recognizable improvement began to reach HARDI members and turn TRENDS sales growth to positive.
Forecasters are generally optimistic sorts. We are naturally bright-siders and more likely to err on the border of being too optimistic. Our kids are always the most talented ones on the field and, our dog is the best, but to tell you the truth, not really the smartest.
The leaves have stopped changing color, and football is still on TV, so that means it is time for members to call for assistance with their market analysis for the year ahead.
