As expected with summer approaching, cooling equipment is providing more momentum. Heat pumps remain one of the few categories seeing continued growth over the past 16 years, while warm-air furnaces and water heaters remain soft. 

Air Conditioners and Heat Pumps    

Air conditioner and heat pump shipments grew in preparation for the summer season. For the combined totals of the two, it’s the largest number of May air conditioner and heat pump shipments compared to May 2025 and 2024.  

COOLING EQUIPMENT: Shipment data for air conditioners and heat pumps, air conditioners only, and heat pumps only for May 2024-2026. (Courtesy of AHRI)

Much like in April 2026, air conditioners experienced increased growth compared to the same time last year. They are below 2024 levels, suggesting stronger seasonal demand for conventional cooling heading into the summer. 

Heat pumps continued their steady climb, seeing a small increase from May 2025. The total is an 8.4% increase from May 2024 heat pump shipments. 

The following compares May 2026 shipments to May 2025:   

• Air conditioners and heat pumps: 919,685 units, up 6.7% from 862,129 

• Air conditioners only: 523,132 units, up 10.2% from 474,519 

• Heat Pumps only: 396,553 units, up 2.3% from 387,610 

A/Cs may have rebounded, but heat pumps continue to be the growth source, albeit incrementally. The following are the year-to-date shipments for May 2026 compared to May 2025: 

• Air conditioner units and air-source heat pumps: 3.69 million, down 1.2% from 3.74 million 

• Air conditioners only: 1.96 million, down 3.4% from 2.02 million 

• Heat pumps only: 1.34 million, up 1.8% from 1.33 million  

Warm-Air Furnaces    

As expected with seasonality, heating equipment is less in demand than its cooling counterparts. It is following a softer heating trend seen earlier this year, though oil furnaces saw slight gains compared to May 2025. 

• Gas warm-air furnaces: 265,734, down 6.3% from 283,691  

• Oil warm-air furnaces: 1,871, up 12.2% from 1,667 

May 2026 year-to-date shipping totals for heating equipment were a mixed bag, with gas seeing declines while oil increased:    

• Gas warm-air furnaces: 1.23 million, down 10.5% from 1.38 million  

• Oil warm-air furnaces: 12,790, up 11.5% from 11,466 

Residential Storage Water Heaters     

In May 2026, gas and electric water heater shipments declined when compared to the same time last year. However, electric storage water heaters continued to outpace gas models: 

• Residential gas storage water heaters: 347,865, down 1.8% from 354,211 

• Residential electric storage water heaters: 411,726, down 7.5% from 445,287 

This trend of favoring electric heaters over gas units continues when examining year-to-date totals for May, though both declined compared to May 2025’s totals:  

• Residential gas storage water heaters: 1.79 million, down 5.4% from 1.89 million 

• Residential electric storage water heaters: 2.07 million, down 6.6% from 2.21 million  

Of the year-to-date totals for all equipment categories, only oil furnaces and heat pumps saw growth. 

Historical May Trends 

Perhaps the biggest standout in all the May data on record is the explosion in heat pump shipments since 2010, the earliest year for which AHRI data is available. 

HEAT PUMP GROWTH: Heat pump shipments from 2010 to 2026. (Chart created via ChatGPT with AHRI data)

According to the data, heat pump shipments have more than doubled, going from 189,854 in May 2010 to 396,553 in 2026. That is a 108.9% increase. The data continues to bear out the increased role heat pumps play in both the heating and cooling markets. 

Gas furnaces remain volatile. Looking at past data reveals the category rising and falling since 2010, as opposed to an overall decline. In 2010, May shipments were 172,867, while in 2022, they were 323,171. They fell below 300,000 in the following year and haven’t climbed back up since. 

Based on this, gas furnace demand has been impacted by inventory timing and market demand more than it was 10 years ago. It remains to be seen how recent actions from the federal government will impact gas-based equipment. The Trump administration continues to support lawsuits and rulemaking that strengthen fossil fuel equipment options, though recent court decisions are complicating or reversing some of those initiatives. 

Even so, the overall shift toward electrification is affecting shipments. Electric water heaters remain above historical norms in May despite seeing a decline. In 2010, shipments were 285,078. As of 2024, they were at 439,756. 

Despite electrification, oil furnaces are not disappearing. Though they make up a small portion of the market (about 1% in May 2026), they’ve steadily increased every May since 2021. They remain a viable niche market, mostly in the northeast markets, with shipments stabilizing since 2020 and recent years showing consistent yet modest growth.