HVAC Data

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February 2026 shipment data from AHRI shows how the HVAC market is reacting more to policy changes and less to seasonality. 

HVAC prices have surged — and aren’t likely to fall. Behind the increase are sweeping regulations, new technology, and shifting market forces that are reshaping how homeowners decide whether to repair or replace their equipment. 

The Bureau of Labor Statistics’ latest fatal injury workplace report shows an overall decline in incidents in the HVAC and plumbing category. 

The market may be more disciplined than it was 5 years ago, but demand for HVAC companies hasn’t gone anywhere. 

The latest shipment report from AHRI shows a sluggish start to 2026, with everything from electrification pushes to refrigerant transitions set to affect the coming year. 

The latest figures from the AHRI show shipments of a/c units and heat pumps fell in November 2025 compared to the same time last year, while furnaces saw modest year-over-year gains.

The a/c and heat pump shipment numbers reflect some of the headwinds industry leaders discussed during last month’s Morgan Stanley Laguna Conference: low consumer demand, high interest rates, tariffs on imported products and materials, and the continuing fallout from the refrigerant transition.

In year-to-date comparisons, shipments of air-source heat pumps, a/c units, and both gas-fired and oil-fired furnaces were all up over the first four months of 2025 compared to the same period last year. 

HVAC industry in March was grappling with talk from the Trump administration of tariffs on imported products, including a 25% tariff imposed on all imported steel and aluminum.