“Heat pumps are indeed a source of purchasing power gains, energy efficiency, and improved trade balance, when they replace imported fossil fuels,” the agency said in a press release. 

The agency conducted several studies over two years to assess heat pump performance during the heating season. Specifically, they tracked 90 air-to-water heat pumps and 10 geothermal heat pumps recently installed in single-family houses to replace gas or oil boilers.  

They also studied the heating consumption of households that installed air-to-air heat pumps in place of all or part of their heating appliance. 

HEAT PUMPS ON THE RISE: France is a leading installer of heat pumps, but they are gaining traction in the U.S. as well.

Heat pump efficiency was measured by the Seasonal Coefficient of Performance. When this reaches a value of two, the pump provides twice as much energy as the electricity it consumes.  

The study recorded an average coefficient of 2.9 for air/water heat pumps, and 4.3 for water/water heat pumps. 

France aims to achieve carbon neutrality by 2050, looking to reduce building sector emissions from 45 metric tons to 30 metric tons by 2030. Using heat pumps to decarbonize heating is one of its solutions. 

"Accelerating the energy transition also means giving households the means to better control their energy bills,” said Sylvain Waserman, chairman and CEO of ADEME. “Heat pumps are an increasingly preferred solution in this respect.”  

Will the U.S. Follow Suit? 

France is among the leading installers of heat pumps, and demand in Europe is expected to grow in the next decade. Whether the United States will follow this trend remains to be seen, though heat pumps are on the rise. 

Heat‑pump shipments now outpace gas and oil furnaces, outselling gas and oil furnaces by 30% in 2024, and in four of the last five years. Heat pump shipments surpassed gas furnaces in 2022 and continue to do so, with roughly one‑third of U.S. homes already having a unit.  

In its 2025 Contractor of the Future survey of 1,000 contractors nationwide, the ACCA reports 45% of all contractors’ heating source for new and replacement systems is heat pumps.  

In 2024, 42% of households now rely on electricity for heating, according to a recent analysis from the U.S. Energy Information Administration.  

Meanwhile, a study from the American Council for an Energy-Efficient Economy last July shows that window-mounted heat pumps provide a lower-cost option for decarbonizing large, multifamily buildings in most cases. 

“Heat pumps — especially cutting-edge technologies like window-mounted models — offer the most cost-effective and scalable way to fully decarbonize heating in apartment buildings,” said Steven Nadel, executive director of ACEEE. 

Contractors are following suit. The ACHR NEWS’ 2025 contractor survey shows that in the last decade, heat pump sales have increased. In the past two years, they’ve eclipsed gas furnace sales for the first time.  

Contractors surveyed said the frequency of heat pump installations increased by 58% versus three years ago, compared to 46% in the previous survey. Of that 58%, 18% said they’ve “increased greatly.”  About 71% predict heat pump sales to increase in the next three years. 

What the Consumer Wants 

Despite all this, heat pumps have yet to gain widespread traction in the U.S. 

Last November, voters in Washington approved of ballot measure I-2066 that prohibits state and local governments from restricting access to natural gas, suggesting consumers aren’t ready to give up gas systems just yet. 

Consumer perception of heat pumps is another factor. Myths about cold-climate performance persist, despite studies like the ADEME and others proving otherwise. Similarly, consumers may have preconceived notions about noise levels. 

The ADEME’s opinion noted that nearly a third of installations do not provide the expected results due to imperfect settings or sizing. This emphasizes the need for contractors to properly understand heat pump operations and installation methods. 

Ultimately, though, consumers are going to want the option of a heat pump. This freedom of choice is, in part, what drives HARDI’s industry advocacy efforts to prevent outright bans on gas systems, said Todd Titus, director of state and public affairs for HARDI. 

“We want distributors to be able to provide whatever products the contractors need to provide to the customers because everyone's situation is different,” he said. “One person might have the better benefit of a heat pump, another person might have the better benefit of … a gas furnace heater. So being able to have that opportunity and not do a blanket ban or blanket prescriptive prohibition is a better tactic.”