“This train is on the track,” Holt said. “And it ain’t going to back up.” 

Why Electric Is Growing 

One factor behind the rise in electric heating is technological breakthroughs. Modern air-source heat pumps bear little resemblance to the loud, unreliable models of years past.  

“They produce really good heat levels, even in the sub-zero climates,” Holt said. “That’s a big change from the past.” 

Sean Robertson, vice president of membership, advocacy, and events at the Air Conditioning Contractors of America (ACCA), said strong policy momentum — federal and state incentives, coupled with decarbonization initiatives — make electric options more visible and financially attractive.  

Another driver is shifting consumer perception. Today’s homeowners care about comfort control, utility savings, warranties, environmental impact, and quiet operation — areas in which heat pumps excel 

“You can’t hear them run,” Holt said. “Homeowners would lean toward the quiet. They just would. It’s a huge part of comfort.” 

Now that the technology is on the radar for the average American homeowner, the contractor’s role becomes even more important. 

“Quality contractors still have an essential role to play in educating consumers about dual-fuel options that can help keep utility bills in check and avoid humidity issues,” Robertson said. “When those three things come together — better tech, better incentives, and changing preferences — it creates a real market shift.” 

What This Means For Contractors  

The increasing number of households using electricity for heating doesn’t simply represent just some sort of replacement trend; it represents a fundamental market switch.  

“The move toward electric heating means change, but it's also an opportunity,” Holt said. “Electrification expands the scope of what a residential HVAC contractor can sell.” 

But Holt said that many technicians are hesitant and feel they don’t understand newer systems, which slows adoption. 

“A guy who has been doing this for 30 years and sees one of these might not know what to do,” Holt said. 

Which is why, at the same time, this transition also means upskilling. Installing and servicing inverter-driven systems is not the same thing as swapping out an 80% gas furnace. Controls integration, wiring for electric backup heat, refrigerant charge accuracy, and airflow diagnostics all become more central to successful installations. 

“Airflow becomes even more important,” Holt said. “Heat pumps run all year round, both heating and cooling, so you’ve got to make sure your airflow is right.” 

Overall, this trend means more opportunity for contractors — the growth of heat pumps means more installs, upgrades, and long-term service work. But, as Uncle Ben said to Peter “Spiderman” Parker, with great power comes great responsibility. The same goes for heat pumps and HVACR contractors.  

“This trend also adds additional complexity,” said Robertson. “Heat pumps oversized for the cooling load and existing duct systems can cause serious health and comfort issues. Ductwork modifications and dual-fuel systems will often provide better comfort and utility savings in the long run, but consumer education and finance options will be key to competing against excessive use of electric resistance backup heat.” 

So, design standards, training, and certification become even more essential.   

“[Contractors] have to be prepared, and they need to invest in training now,” Holt said. “If you choose not to get yourself educated on how to install and maintain this stuff, on how to talk to customers about it, how to sell it, how to price and sell it properly … that train’s going to pull way away from you.” 

The Biggest Obstacles 

As heat pumps expand their presence, barriers remain for contractors — especially when navigating customer expectations and their own internal processes. Holt identified the top three challenges as cost, contractor confidence, and effective communication.  

The higher upfront cost of heat pumps can be intimidating to customers, as most households don’t have the financial liquidity to write a check for the total cost of one of these systems. This can be aided by financing options.  

“[Consumers] typically don't have the money … so you've got to have a finance partner that you're working with that makes affordable monthly payments easy and accessible for homeowners,” Holt said. 

Holt said contractors should present clear options at different efficiency tiers and warranty levels to prevent customers from shopping competitors.  

“Create packages to give the homeowner the ability to say yes to one of your choices,” Holt said.  

Understanding high-efficiency equipment as such is essential, but many contractors remain uneasy — and that confidence, or lack thereof, is visible to homeowners and ultimately influences their decisions.  

“If you’re skeptical about it, the homeowner will pick up on it,” Holt said. “They just will.” 

To aid this challenge, Holt said industry associations, manufacturers, and distributors offer training to help close any knowledge gaps. 

“I’ll tell you one thing that doesn’t work — beating up your distributor,” Holt said. “Don't create an adversarial relationship with your distributor. As a contractor … when I did partner with them, they took care of us because we took care of them.” 

Technical jargon undermines trust and confuses the general public. Homeowners don’t know how these systems work, and they don’t have to. Contractors instead need to be able to communicate clearly what’s actually important to customers: Does it have a long warranty? Will it both heat and cool the house? Is it quiet? 

“Using technical terminology does not make you look smarter,” Holt said. “It makes the customer feel dumber because you're not getting the point across. … Without jargon, you’re going to close more sales. This is where policy, training, and industry collaboration all comes together to make heat pumps an easier, safer choice for everyone in the whole chain.” 

Preparing For The Future  

The shift toward electrification is clearly accelerating — not plateauing — and that means contractors should plan accordingly. 

“Within five years, heat pumps will most likely outsell furnaces, period,” Holt said. “It doesn’t matter what region you live in.” 

Robertson said that as electric rates climb, so does the full range of efficient alternatives and comprehensive home upgrades that contractors can offer.  

“Make sure your techs and sales teams are trained on the full range of heat pump options, including dual fuel, geothermal, and home performance upgrades,” Robertson said. “The good news is that consumers want choices” — so much so that ACCA’s recent Contractor of the Future survey showed that contractors who offer customers four or more choices increased close rates by 24%.  

Robertson said that contractors should also be joining the fight against “short-sighted” policies that restrict these potential offerings. 

“Protecting access to natural gas and incentives for efficient dual fuel systems will help more consumers afford upgrades to modern heat pumps rather than limping along with antiquated systems and DIY solutions,” Robertsons aid.  

Increasingly, manufacturers are rolling out cold-climate models with better performance and related training programs. 

“They’ve also launched consumer education programs that boost demand, but sometimes these campaigns gloss over the complexity of going electric and the critical role of quality contractors in ensuring that systems are designed for the unique characteristics of each home,” Robertson said.  

According to Holt, the rise of cold-climate models is already evident in northern states and Canada. At the same time, broader electrification trends — from EV charging to panel upgrades — point to a larger, systemic shift. Contractors should also build partnerships with manufacturers and distributors.  

“Don't be bouncing around all over the place,” Holt said. “Pick the horse you're going to ride and ride them and ride them hard. But ride them in partnership — not an adversarial relationship — but a partnership relationship. And support that, again, from a distributor manufacturer standpoint, with training, financing, and marketing programs that make sense to homeowners.”