By February, President Trump was in office, and the U.S. announced a fresh round of tariffs on Chinese imports that directly affected HVAC equipment and components. The policy quickly became an on-again, off-again saga, prompting manufacturers to raise prices to offset rising material costs and continued supply chain disruptions.

Just as the industry began to adapt to the EPA’s refrigerant regulation — the Technology Transitions (TT) rule — the agency announced in March that it planned to revise it. The decision reignited uncertainty among contractors and manufacturers, who were left wondering whether timelines would change again and what new restrictions might follow. The proposed changes became one of the year’s most talked-about topics.

By April, a shortage of R-454B was creating widespread concern across the industry. Distributors faced depleted inventories, and contractors struggled to find enough aftermarket refrigerant to service newly installed equipment. Some began stockpiling limited supplies, while others searched for alternative channels, all hoping the supply chain would stabilize in the months ahead.

The R-454B shortage became so severe in May that some technicians began to share ideas for mixing refrigerants on social media. Many seemed to think that it was okay to use R-410A to top off a system using R-454B. The industry quickly pushed back, reminding everyone that while mixing might sound resourceful, it’s a surefire way to void warranties, damage compressors, and make homeowners very unhappy when their new system fails prematurely.

June brought a new round of regulatory questions when the Department of Energy (DOE) announced plans to review or roll back 47 regulations, including several affecting HVACR equipment. The stated goal was to reduce regulatory burdens and modernize the rulemaking process, but the announcement left contractors questioning which standards might change and manufacturers preparing for another period of uncertainty.

In July, Congress passed the so-called “Big Beautiful Bill,” a broad piece of legislation with major implications for the HVAC industry. Among the most notable were changes to long-standing tax incentives. On the residential side, Sections 25C and 25D, which encourage energy-efficient home improvements, will be repealed for projects starting after December 31, 2025. On the commercial side, Sections 45L and 179D, which support energy-efficient construction and upgrades, will expire for projects beginning after June 30, 2026, ending two key incentives for energy-saving investments.

By August, it was clear the refrigerant shortage had not eased, and residential HVAC sales were beginning to slide as a result. Major manufacturers -- including Carrier, Trane, and Lennox -- reported in their second-quarter earnings calls that demand was softening and likely to remain weak through year-end.

When September arrived, that outlook held true. At the Morgan Stanley Laguna Conference, HVAC manufacturers pointed to the ongoing shortage, rising equipment costs, and cautious homeowners opting for repairs over replacements as key factors driving the slowdown. Strength in the commercial market provided some balance, but for contractors who depend on summer installations, it was a disappointing close to the season.

EPA introduced its proposed refrigerant rule in October, which would eliminate the installation compliance date for residential and light commercial air conditioning and heat pump systems that are manufactured or imported before January 1, 2025. For commercial refrigeration, the proposal would raise the GWP threshold beginning in 2026 for remote condensing units and 2027 for supermarket systems, followed by stricter, lower thresholds starting in 2032. The rule divided the industry, with some welcoming the added flexibility, while others warned that delays could create confusion. EPA is not expected to issue the final rule until sometime in early 2026.

November brought another regulatory milestone as the DOE upheld its long-debated furnace efficiency standard, which will require new furnaces to be roughly 15% more efficient by 2028. The change effectively signals the end of non-condensing furnace production in the coming years. DOE estimates the rule will save the average homeowner about $350 over the life of the equipment -- a rather modest return given the higher upfront cost of condensing systems.

Now December is here, and it’s anyone’s guess what might happen before the year is over -- another EPA proposal, new tariffs, or something entirely unexpected. Whatever the case, one thing remains certain: the HVACR industry never takes a holiday. And despite the pressures of the past year, the people who power this industry continue to show remarkable resilience.

So here’s to the HVACR technicians, contractors, distributors, and manufacturers who kept their cool through what was undeniably a demanding year -- a testament to the industry’s adaptability, endurance, and commitment to keeping the world comfortable. Wishing you a restful holiday season and a prosperous -- and less chaotic -- 2026.