“Nearly 7% sales growth against a month when cooling degree days were well above normal in six of our seven regions last June looks great, but that’s not apples-to-apples,” said Brian Loftus, HARDI’s macroeconomic and residential market analyst. “June 2025 had one more billing day than June of 2024. We estimate the sales growth was closer to 1.8% with the same number of billing days.”

The monthly sales survey also calculates distributor’s Days Sales Outstanding (DSO), a measure of how quickly customers pay their bills. “The DSO for June was tracking at 39 days from 2021 through 2023. It was trimmed by a day in June of 2024 and has been trimmed by another day during June of 2025 to less than 37 days” said Loftus.

The annual sales growth among HARDI distributors participating in the monthly survey has been near 4% during the past three months, while the producer price index for the industry has been moving toward that level. “If the price increases are passed through, then there is not much real sales growth so far this year,” said Loftus. “Modest sales growth during 2025 would be consistent with the sticky inflation and interest rates, the weak consumer confidence, housing and employment reports.”

HARDI members do not receive financial compensation in exchange for their monthly sales data and can discontinue participation without prior notice or penalty. Participation is voluntary, and the depth of market coverage varies from region to region. An independent entity collects and compiles the data, which can include sales information about products not directly associated with the HVACR industry.