Each job category was rated on a scale of zero to 10, with zero noting minimal risk and 10 being at very high risk. The heating, air conditioning, and refrigeration mechanics and installers category, made up of about 425,000 jobs in 2024, has a digital exposure of two, or “low,” according to the analysis. 

“While AI may assist with peripheral tasks like diagnostics software, scheduling, or energy load calculations, it cannot perform the physical installation, repair, or handling of hazardous materials required for the job,” the report states. 

This may come as a relief to HVAC contractors — or is more likely an obvious conclusion they’ve already drawn. But the role of HVAC technicians will likely transform as technology rapidly evolves. Buildings are becoming smarter, whether it’s smart thermostats in homes or buildings that think for themselves. 

“If you’re an HVAC owner or general manager, training your team for AI isn’t just a ‘tech initiative,’” said Scott Merritt in an ACHR NEWS column. “It’s a culture shift. It requires clear communication, thoughtful training, and above all, leadership that removes fear and friction before they take root.” 

Stephen Holicky, chief product officer at Tridium Inc., spoke about automated buildings during a panel at the 2026 AHR Expo. He said there is currently a cost resistance to automated facilities, mostly around having the skilled labor to care for the systems. But adding AI is like adding another group of skilled people to a building, he said, so contractors will need to adapt as more facility managers seek to automate maintenance. 

“We have to remember that there is so much experience and intelligence that are within you all that have not found its way into a language model,” said Holicky. “We need openness to accept new technology and a willingness to work with it and to challenge it meaningfully.” 

About 33% of the 143 million jobs covered by the analysis fall into the “low” category alongside HVAC, such as roofing, food and beverage serving, construction laborers, and hand laborers.  

At-Risk HVAC Jobs 

Though installation and technician jobs are safe, other aspects of the HVAC industry are at risk. 

Jobs like secretaries and administrative assistants, office clerks, bookkeeping and accounting, marketing managers, and customer service representatives are all at high risk, scoring an 8 or 9 out of 10 on the digital exposure scale.  

The study’s justification is that most of the tasks completed by these jobs, such as scheduling, managing databases, and information processing, are all fundamentally digital and align with the capabilities of AI. 

Jason Dolan, vice president of strategic partnerships for Hatch, notes that the most common issue HVAC contractors face is missed calls. Through AI, contractors can have a virtual agent available 24/7 to answer after-hours calls. 

“A homeowner calls, nobody picks up, and that lead is gone,” Dolan said. “After that, it’s a slow follow-up on form fills and estimates. A lead comes in from Yelp, Angi, or Google and sits for hours or days before anyone reaches out. And then there's the database problem. Contractors are sitting on thousands of past leads and customers they've never re-engaged. 

“AI can handle all three of those without adding headcount.” 

The report does have caveats, mainly that these are “rough LLM estimates, not rigorous predictions.” For example, a job with high exposure doesn’t necessarily predict that it will disappear. The predictions don’t account for demand elasticity, latent demand, regulatory barriers, or social preferences. 

“Many high-exposure jobs will be reshaped, not replaced,” the report said. 

The overall average AI digital exposure across the 143 million jobs tracked by the analysis is 4.9 out of 10.