“Eleven percent is a nice start to the first month of heating season, but it was helped by one more billing day than October of 2023,” said Brian Loftus, HARDI’s macroeconomic and residential market analyst. “We estimate the sales growth would have been 6.2% with the same number of billing days. That is the best monthly sales growth of 2024 when comparing the growth rates with the same number of billing days.”

The monthly sales survey also calculates distributors’ Days Sales Outstanding, a measure of how quickly customers pay their bills. “The brisk DSO pace of this summer continued during the first month of heating season,” said Loftus. “The post-Covid DSO for October was in the 42- to 43-day range during the past few years, but was only 38.5 this year.

“It seems premature to attribute this encouraging sales growth to the rate-cutting cycle that began September 18, but it is an encouraging development for HARDI members,” Loftus continued. “The annual sales growth rate could keep climbing if inflation keeps melting and the 10-year bond yield pulls mortgage rates lower.”

HARDI members do not receive financial compensation in exchange for their monthly sales data and can discontinue participation without prior notice or penalty. Participation is voluntary, and the depth of market coverage varies from region to region. An independent entity collects and compiles the data, which can include sales information about products not directly associated with the HVACR industry.