The Air-Conditioning, Heating & Refrigeration Institute data show that heat pump, a/c, furnace. and water heater shipments all fell in October in comparison to the same month last year.
The a/c and heat pump shipment numbers reflect some of the headwinds industry leaders discussed during last month’s Morgan Stanley Laguna Conference: low consumer demand, high interest rates, tariffs on imported products and materials, and the continuing fallout from the refrigerant transition.
The May transactions took place as HVAC contractors continued to grapple with the limited availability of R-454B, caused by a shortage of the proper cylinders for the A2L refrigerant.
In year-to-date comparisons, shipments of air-source heat pumps, a/c units, and both gas-fired and oil-fired furnaces were all up over the first four months of 2025 compared to the same period last year.
It was the first really cold day of the winter and Bob and Tim were on the way to a service call on an oil burner. The customer said that they had no heat. It was about 15°F outside so they were in a rush to get there.
Sales of oil furnaces had been declining precipitously since 2004, but it seems that lower oil prices, local incentives, and pent-up demand may be fueling a small surge in sales.
Tim had asked Bob to go into depth about tuning an oil burner during the last service call. “You said that oil burning equipment requires more attention than any other type of residential heating equipment,” Tim said. “Can you explain why?”
Bob and Tim were on their way to an oil heat service call. It is cold and the owner has no heat. Tim read the service ticket for today and said, “The owner says that the burner won’t burn and makes a sputtering sound for a few minutes and shuts off.”
Many homeowners recently fired up their oil furnaces for the first time this season. If they’ve invested in proper service and maintenance, chances are high that their equipment will keep them comfortably warm all winter long.