The Status of Fossil Fuel Reserves is a Cause for Concern
Some countries are taking significant steps to reduce their dependency on oil
OIL: While fossil fuel reserves dwindle, countries around the world are working on 60 new nuclear power plants. (Courtesy of the Department of Energy)
One of the major talking points from our new president has been that of energy independence. This conversation centered primarily, or maybe even exclusively, around oil and gas production. The approach to achieving this goal appears to be to allow more drilling in areas of the United States where the previous administration would not allow.
When searching the topic of remaining oil reserves on this planet, one finds differing opinions as to what is or might be available. These range from approximately a 50 year supply to an infinite supply of oil on this earth. Some other sites state that we might have a known supply of 50 years but there are likely many more oil reserves which we have not yet discovered that would provide many more years of oil production. While these sites may disagree on how much oil the earth ultimately holds, most seem to agree on the quantity of currently known reserves being around 50 years at today’s consumption rate.
Worldometers.info lists the known oil reserves at 1.65 trillion barrels. They state that if the consumption rate stays steady at the 2016 world’s consumption rate, the known reserves will last 47 years. While 47 years seems like a relatively long time to develop other energy sources (nuclear, wind, solar, geothermal, etc.), that timeframe is based upon the world’s 2016 oil consumption rate. When reviewing available data, the yearly consumption for oil in 1996 was 26.2 billion barrels, for 2006 was 31.4 billion barrels, and for 2016 was 35.4 billion barrels. Based upon that historical data, is there any assurance that consumption rates will remain around the 2016 rate? Some sites extrapolated this data and concluded that the world’s oil reserves will last less than 40 years.
I would guess that those who believe in an infinite oil supply, or at least 100 years or more, are not overly concerned about this issue- at least not in their lifetime. What about the others of us? Are there any of us around the world concerned? Or in the United States? Some believe that the move towards electrification – primarily the electrification of vehicles – will greatly slow down the demand for oil and gas. And over the next 20+ years, this will help some. However, there are so many other places around the world that oil is used. Can we afford to just hope the slow electrification of the automobile will completely solve this problem or at least push it further out into the future of those who are not yet born? Or should we in the United States start being a little more concerned about our energy sources?
While I do not mean to suggest I know the solution to the concerns over our world’s oil supply, I do see how some other countries are at least taking some significant steps to reduce their dependency on oil. Countries around the world, led by China and India, have approximately 60 nuclear power plants under construction. The United States has none and until very recently, was not even seriously discussing the possibility of constructing any new nuclear power plants. Equally disturbing to many of us, the US has not even been able to develop a viable approach to the storage of its nuclear waste. As is human nature, most of us really don’t care that our nuclear waste is spread out in many parts of the country as long as it is not being stored near our towns where we live.
So, the question boils down to this: can the U.S. and many other countries around the world not be concerned about our dwindling oil reserves? 50, 40 or even 30 years sounds like a very long time to develop some sort of plan, but it really is not. This is an issue that needs the immediate attention of the leaders in the U.S. and other countries. Before we are totally out of oil, reserves in different parts of the world will begin to dry up. Once the public is made aware of some of the fairly large reserves running out of oil, panic will begin to set in. This may not be for another 2 or 3 decades but would it not be proactive to address the issue now before this occurs or does the older generation just let the younger generation address the problem when it occurs years from now? Many of us hope that is not the approach civilization takes.
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