The Never-Ending Refrigerant Race
Another refrigerant transition is on the horizon, but is the real problem being ignored?
The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency’s (EPA’s) phasedown of high-GWP refrigerants under the AIM Act is well underway. As part of this phasedown, manufacturers had to stop producing most comfort cooling equipment containing high-GWP refrigerants like R-410A by January 1, 2025. This essentially drove the HVAC industry's transition to lower-GWP alternatives such as A2Ls.
That transition was on full display at the recent AHR Expo in Orlando, Florida, where manufacturers enthusiastically showcased their brand-new air conditioners and heat pumps that utilize the A2L refrigerants, R-32 or R-454B. But even as excitement buzzed around these new systems, discussions on the show floor and during the Expo’s education sessions hinted at the industry's next big questions: What will the next refrigerant transition look like? When will it happen?
Many believe that after A2Ls, R-290 (propane), a flammable A3 refrigerant, will be the primary candidate for comfort cooling applications. As evidence, they point to Europe and the United Kingdom (UK), where manufacturers already offer heat pumps using R-290. At this point, however, these are primarily monobloc air-to-water systems, with the refrigerant contained outside the home. In contrast, the U.S. residential market is dominated by ducted air-to-air systems, which, with current technology, would mean using a flammable refrigerant inside the home.
Before that could happen, U.S. codes and standards would need to be updated, which could prove to be very challenging. That topic came up at the AHR Expo educational session, “Everything You Need to Know About the Refrigerant Transition & A2Ls,” and was addressed by Scott Stone, founder and president of Glencoe Strategies LLC.
“There's growing interest in these low-GWP refrigerants. New York is already pushing for another transition to refrigerants that have a GWP of 10 or lower across all equipment types. That basically means HFOs and propane and A3s,” said Stone. “I'm a big fan of regular order, and I think when you start early, things take less time and are a lot less expensive. When you have to rush, they take up more time, they're a lot more expensive, and there's a greater propensity for errors, confusion, and whatnot. What was done with A2Ls and the building codes was heroic, and it’s probably impossible to do again for A3s.”
And it’s certainly not possible in just a handful of years, said Stone. He added that a transition to A3s, if it ever were to occur, is going to need significant lead time, and that is not yet reflected in how certain states are thinking about refrigerant regulation.
“If states want to try to push another transition, they really have to think about just what all is involved,” said Stone. “That includes things that are well beyond the control of equipment manufacturers, such as building code approvals and refrigerant substitute approvals under EPA’s SNAP program, which is another Federal program that has to be translated into the planning process. Or things could get could get pretty tight and probably unworkable.”
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An audience member chimed in, suggesting that the industry is attacking the wrong problem. “It is not a chemical problem, it's a leak problem,” said the attendee. “We continue to change refrigerants, and the refrigerants leak out of the same holes, and then they say, well, we have to change those chemicals, because for whatever the new reason is, they're bad.”
That comment drew laughter from the audience, and Stone responded, “I agree completely with everything you said. I'm not kidding either. The law has not been sensitive to the big picture. It's zeroed in on things that are easy to measure [ODP and GWP] and frankly, to pick on. Then there’s the leaking. If it doesn't leak, it doesn't matter what you have in there. But most stuff does leak, and then how can you monitor and measure that when you've got millions of pieces of equipment all over the place? Seriously, though, everything you said is probably the most important way to frame the policy landscape.”
Still, the HVACR industry should be prepared, as the cycle of refrigerant transitions is unlikely to end anytime soon. Until the focus shifts from constantly developing new chemicals to addressing the root cause leaks — manufacturers, contractors, and policymakers alike will find themselves repeating the same pattern. Solving the leak problem may ultimately be the key to breaking this cycle.
