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Did Record Heat Boost HVAC Sales This Summer?
Unfortunately, the outlook for winter is that it will be warmer than normal, with less snow
Summer is officially over, and while the calendar says it’s Fall, it’s still pretty hot in a good chunk of the U.S. In fact, this summer was a warm one all over the country, which should make HVAC contractors happy. Equipment sales are typically driven by extreme temperatures, which is why many contractors hope and pray for hot summers and cold winters.
They certainly got their wish this summer. For June through August, NOAA reports that the average temperature for the contiguous U.S. was 73.8°F, 2.5°F above average, which is the fourth-warmest summer in the 130-year record. Temperatures were above average to record warm across much of the western U.S. and from the Gulf Coast to the Northeast. Arizona, California, Florida, Maine, and New Hampshire each had their warmest summer on record. In fact, in Arizona, Phoenix had more than 100 straight days with highs at or above 100°F, which is the longest streak on record.
These record temperatures align with The ACHR NEWS’s summer weather forecast, which quoted Carol Connare, editor at The Old Farmer’s Almanac, as saying, “Overall, just like last summer, I think we’re looking at one of the hotter summers on record.” Anthony Artusa, CPC Meteorologist for NOAA, added that for the temperature outlook in May, June, and July, most of the lower 48 will be above normal.
The warmer-than-normal weather was also reflected in the number of air conditioners and heat pumps shipped in June, July, and August. In June 2024, U.S. shipments of central air conditioners and air-source heat pumps increased by 10.4% compared to June 2023, with air conditioner shipments rising by 8.2% and air-source heat pumps by 14%, according to AHRI. July 2024 saw even stronger growth, with total shipments up 21.8% compared to July 2023, which included a 15.8% increase in air conditioner shipments and a very robust 31.7% jump in air-source heat pump shipments. In August, shipments of central air conditioners and air-source heat pumps increased 11.2% compared to August 2023, with air conditioners increasing 5.6% and air-source heat pump shipments up 20.4%.
As usual, though, along with the hot weather came the criticisms bemoaning the world’s increased use of air conditioning. For example, in a New York Times podcast, the speaker discussed how the introduction of air conditioning led Americans to move to previously uninhabitable states, such as Florida, Texas, Arizona, and Nevada. Not only does all this air conditioning require an enormous amount of energy, she said, but it “sort of lulls people into moving to these places…we’ve sort of convinced ourselves that the climate doesn’t matter.”
To reduce our dependence on air conditioning, she said we all need to change our behavior.
“We need to think anew about our relationship to comfort. And are we willing to be uncomfortable some of the time? Am I willing to wait until July to turn my air conditioning on? Am I willing to turn it off at night when it’s not really necessary to use it? Am I willing to sleep at 80° instead of 72°?”
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I can answer that unequivocally: “No, I’m not.” I like to be comfortable when I sleep, and I think 72° sounds just about perfect, which is why I always look forward to a chilly fall and winter, so I can open the windows and enjoy the cool air. Unfortunately, the forecast for this winter isn’t too promising. According to Connare from The Old Farmer’s Almanac, “This winter, temperatures will be up and snowfall down throughout most of the United States.… We’re predicting a temperate, uneventful winter.”
NOAA echoes that forecast, noting that La Niña is favored to develop during September, October, and November and persist through the winter. As a result, “The September-October-November 2024 temperature outlook favors above-normal temperatures across a majority of the contiguous U.S., with the largest probabilities (exceeding 60%) forecast for New England and parts of the Southwest.”
While the winter forecast may be disappointing, HVAC contractors still have plenty of valuable opportunities, such as system upgrades, maintenance, and energy-efficient retrofits (remember, states are coming online with IRA incentives). And weather forecasts are not set in stone — there is still a chance that winter will be colder than anticipated. But if not, contractors can maintain steady business by focusing on strategic planning and offering value-added services that go beyond temperature-driven demand.
