Bold Predictions for the New Year
For many HVACR wholesalers, 2018 was an exceptional year, as evidenced in this month’s cover story. I hope 2018 was your best year yet.
The New Year is well upon us. I know this because my inbox is currently peppered with AHR Expo-related booth invites and product releases. That and my wife hasn’t stopped playing Christmas music since Thanksgiving.
As we prepare to flip the calendar and turn our focus to the future, I feel moved to share a few of my predictions that are sure to come true in 2019.
No. 1: A Tech Conglomerate Will Purchase a Top 50 HVACR Distributor
Given that President Donald Trump’s tax cuts have loosened corporate America’s purse strings, it seems as though an acquisition of this magnitude is bound to happen. And when this transaction occurs, it’s going to absolutely rattle the supply chain. From an investment standpoint, HVACR makes perfect sense. The life span of most major HVACR purchases runs somewhere between 10-20 years, creating constant turnover. Amazon, which operates one of the world’s most popular online storefronts and is currently creating its own transportation firm to distribute its own products, tops the lis of potential buyers. Alphabet, parent company of Google, also has shown an interest in HVACR, as evidenced by its current escapades into HVACR geothermal technologies, which it deems “Dandelion.”
No. 2: The U.S. Will Ratify the Kigali Amendment
The Kigali Amendment, a 2016 agreement presented by the Parties ot the Montreal Protocol designed to phase out the use of potent, heat-trapping gases known as hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs), will take effect Jan. 1, 2019, without the support of the U.S.
I believe Trump will break with the Republican majority and ratify this pact for two reasons:
- The global market for HFC alternatives is projected to exceed $1 trillion. This is too sweet of a business opportunity for Trump to neglect.
- Trump’s favorite president (other than himself), Ronald Reagan, approved the Montreal Protocol in 1987. Trump will aim to sign it if for no other reason than to walk in Reagan’s shoes. For those of you who are shaking your heads, saying, “Nope. Never gonna happen,” let me remind you that one of Trump’s greatest assets is his unpredictability.
No. 3: The AHR Expo Will Break Attendance Records
This year’s event will be held at the Georgia World Congress Center in Atlanta. New attendance records are essentially set every year. Let me be the first to proclaim it this year. Distribution Trends will be exhibiting in booth B1439. Please stop in, flag me down, and tell me why these three predictions are way off.
Disclaimer: These prophecies come from a guy who believes the Detroit Lions will win every game they play. Cheers to a happy, healthy, successful 2019!
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Publication date: 12/13/18
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