“Double-digit sales growth could be a great sign for 2026 after more than a year with annual sales growth in the 2% to 4% range, but that gain for the month had some help,” said Brian Loftus, senior market analyst at HARDI. “March of 2026 had one more billing day than last March. We estimate the sales growth was closer to 5.4% with the same number of billing days.”

The monthly sales survey also calculates distributor’s Days Sales Outstanding, or DSO, a measure of how quickly customers pay their bills. The DSO for March was near 38 days, like last March. “It looks like subdued market activity is helping to keep the DSO contained,” Loftus said. “It dipped below 40 days not long after the annual growth rate dipped below 5%."

Loftus added that the sales-to-inventory ratio suggests distributors are planning for a busy cooling season.

HARDI members do not receive financial compensation in exchange for monthly sales data and can discontinue participation in the survey without prior notice or penalty. Participation is voluntary, and the depth of market coverage varies from region to region. An independent entity collects and compiles the data, which can include sales information about products not directly associated with the HVACR industry.