The economic consequences will reach far beyond just the jobs themselves, with researchers estimating approximately $71.3 billion in lost federal, state, and local tax revenue each year.  

The research, built off 11,000 data points, included data sourced from the Department of Labor, analyzed seven core trades: electricians, plumbers, carpenters, HVAC technicians, welders, mechanics, and construction workers. 

“It’s a wake-up call for the American economy,” the press release said.  

By the Numbers 

According to the press release, the projected 1.39 million direct job openings would have a ripple effect across the broader economy, resulting in an estimated 2,761,169 total jobs lost annually when indirect and induced impacts are considered. 

Together, these trades currently account for 5.6 million jobs across the country, generating $1.3 trillion in annual economic impact. But, the analysis suggests that nearly 25% of those roles will be vacant within the next four years.  

Broken down further, by 2030, here are the anticipated job openings, by trade: 976,980 construction workers, 425,345 carpenters, 411,400 electricians, 243,790 plumbers, 242,425 welders, 207,065 mechanics, and 192,365 HVAC technicians.  

Back to that $325.6 billion in projected GDP loss — in her framing of the data, Nichole Parker, managing principal of Parker Strategy Group, said these projects are conservative. The modeling does not include delayed or canceled projects due to labor shortages, only wage-based economic impact. 

“You can have capital and plans and demand,” Parker said during a recent webinar outlining the findings. “But without skilled labor, nothing is going to move forward.” 

The Multiplier Effect 

The new research also underscored what economists call “the multiplier effect.” 

Using IMPLAN modeling, Parker repeatedly underscored that the trades gap isn’t just affecting contractors — she explained that direct trade jobs generate indirect supply chain jobs and induced household spending jobs and that the projected 1.4 million unfilled trades jobs would lead to 2.8 million total jobs lost economy-wide. 

“It’s not only the trades jobs that are missing in the economy. We’re losing roughly 50% more jobs because we don’t have these folks employed,” Parker said.  

This scenario is also using 2024 as a baseline, so it’s not some distant scenario or long-term speculative modeling. Parker noted that this problem accrues every year through 2030, meaning it’s a compounding drag on economic growth.  

Future Realities and the “Silver Tsunami” 

It’s clear that each trade is suffering from a lack of workforce, and soon the competition for skilled labor could become even more cutthroat.  

While the labor gap is a national issue, some regions of the country will face more severe shortages.  

The Pacific region — including California, Washington, and Oregon — is projected to see 238,744 unfilled trades jobs by 2030, resulting in $66.9 billion in lost GDP annually. The South Atlantic region (including Florida and Georgia) could face nearly 293,000 vacancies and $60.4 billion in economic losses. 

But researchers emphasize that every state is affected. 

“These aren’t rankings of winners and losers,” Parker said during the webinar. “They show where economic capacity is being constrained because we haven’t filled these jobs.” 

And soon, the trades may see states begin poaching talent.  

“As states begin competing to attract workers, the states that are more innovative and aggressive will start pulling talent from states that aren’t paying attention,” Shana Brunye, COO and research director, Bring Back the Trades, said.  

And then there’s also the demographic wave that’s going to be hitting harder.  

“For every five tradespeople retiring, there are only two coming in from the next generation,” Brunye added. 

This aging workforce, getting ready to clock out for the last time, has been coined “the silver tsunami.” In careers where the work is more physically demanding, like HVAC, working into someone’s late 60s or 70s is less common, meaning it’s going to hit the trades harder than other sectors of the economy, where Baby Boomers represent large shares of the workforce.  

“This problem grows exponentially, because the more folks are retiring, fewer entrants, no clear pathways into the trades — this worker gap grows,” Parker said.  

The “knowledge cliff” will hit especially hard, given that the trades rely heavily on apprenticeships, mentors, and hands-on skill transfer.  

“This isn’t just a report — it’s a call to action,” said Steve Turner, Founder and CEO of Bring Back the Trades, according to the press release. “The shortage in the skilled trades impacts every sector of our economy. We must act now to fill the current need, and share solutions on how to empower the next generation of skilled workers.” 

Worker Pipeline Problem 

The challenge here isn’t simple recruitment — it’s about awareness of a fruitful career and figuring out how exactly to enter the field.  

“The parents and the guidance counselors are reaching out to us because they don’t know how to navigate the trades,” Brunye said.  

For decades, the narrative has been that the only way to be successful is through a four-year degree. That cultural messaging has become so ingrained in early education that the trades aren’t seen as a viable option. Brunye said it’s time to start delivering the message to high school students that the trades are a way to become successful.  

“We figured it out for college. We need to figure it out for the trades,” Brunye said.  

“If you're smart and you're hardworking and you go into the trades, you could make a lot of money,” Brunye added.  

“We challenge students, families, educators, employers, and policymakers to recognize this economic imperative,” Turner added. “We must mobilize now to invest in expanded training pathways and inspire the next generation to pursue these essential careers that keep America’s economy strong.”