LONDON — A new report, “Global Construction 2030,” forecasts that the volume of construction output will grow by 85 percent to $15.5 trillion worldwide by 2030, with three countries — China, the U.S., and India — leading the way and accounting for 57 percent of all global growth.

The benchmark global study — the fourth in a series from Global Construction Perspectives and Oxford Economics — shows average global construction growth of 3.9 percent per annum to 2030, outpacing that of global gross domestic product (GDP) by more than one percentage point, driven by developed countries recovering from economic instability and emerging countries continuing to industrialize.

“China’s share of the world construction market will increase only marginally as growth slows in the world’s largest construction market to 2030. In comparison, U.S. construction will grow faster than China over the next 15 years — growing by an average of 5 percent per annum. Meanwhile, we’re due to see a surge in construction rates in India as it overtakes Japan to become world’s third largest construction market by 2021,” said Graham Robinson, executive director, Global Construction Perspectives.

China construction growth is expected to slow considerably with a slump in housing and the first ever decline in housing output for China will be registered this year. But, its transition to a consumer and services driven economy provides opportunity for growth in new types of construction in health care, education, and social infrastructure, as well as retail and other consumer end-markets. The abolition of China’s one-child policy adds impetus to the long-term view.

The construction market in India is projected to grow almost twice as fast as China to 2030, providing a new engine of global growth in emerging markets. India’s urban population is expected to grow by a staggering 165 million by 2030, swelling Delhi by 10.4 million people to become the world’s second largest city.

In the U.S., construction growth will tilt towards the Southern states, reflecting the region’s greater catch-up potential and higher population growth.

For Europe, while it won’t recover to reach pre-crisis levels until 2025, the U.K. is a stand-out growth market, overtaking Germany to become the largest in Europe and the world’s sixth largest construction market by 2030.

“Construction is likely to be one of the most dynamic industrial sectors in the next 15 years and is utterly crucial to the evolution of prosperous societies around the world. The numbers within this report are huge and that translates as creating vast numbers of new jobs and creating significant wealth for certain countries across the globe,” said Fernando A. González, chief executive of global building materials company CEMEX.

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Publication date: 12/2/2015

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