The Hype vs. The Data 

The newest SearchLight data tells a clear story: 

• ChatGPT referrals represent only about 1% of total revenue for most contractors. The leads are undeniably high quality, averaging $11,500 per ticket, but the volume simply isn’t there yet. 

• Meanwhile, Google Business Profiles (GBPs) remain the workhorse of modern marketing, driving 67% of total contractor revenue at an average ticket of $3,441. 

• Add another 25% from traditional organic search, and you find that 92% of total contractor revenue still comes from Google-based digital-driven revenue. 

It’s not glamorous. It’s not headline-grabbing. But it’s predictable, measurable, and scalable — the backbone of how real homeowners find real help. 

And as the latest SearchLight report on LLMs and AI demand points out, those few AI-assisted leads that do convert are often difficult to scale and even harder to attribute. Their discovery paths are fragmented and inconsistent across platforms. 

So while AI can influence high-value decisions, it does not yet function as a primary demand engine you can reliably build a business on. 

What This Means for HVAC and Plumbing Contractors 

AI discovery tools are exciting. There’s no denying they’ll play a growing role in how homeowners research and validate service providers. 

But right now, for HVAC and plumbing companies, the math is still simple: the majority of measurable, repeatable ROI continues to live in your Google Business Profile, local SEO, and your reputation. 

When a homeowner’s heat goes out at 10 p.m., they don’t ask ChatGPT for life advice. They type “ac repair near me.” And that’s where your Google Business Profile visibility determines whether you get the call, or your competitor does. 

The newest SearchLight insights show that, today, large language models are not generating meaningful standalone lead volume for most HVAC and plumbing companies. 

In fact, in December, the data show that for at least 24% of ChatGPT-sourced conversions and 18% of Gemini-sourced conversions, the campaign or medium attribution was the Google Business Profile. 

What this reveals is critical: AI tools are not operating independently from existing digital ecosystems. They are frequently drawing from the same business data and visibility signals that already power Google today. 

AI isn’t an engine; it’s a mirror. It reflects what already exists online. When business data is incomplete, inconsistent, or buried, there’s simply nothing reliable for AI tools to surface. 

That’s the irony: the same visibility hygiene that powers Google today is the raw material AI depends on tomorrow, at least for now. 

Feed the Future Without Starving the Present 

AI tools don’t conjure demand out of thin air. They interpret and reassemble structured business data (your name, address, phone number, website content, reviews, and even your Google Posts) to determine credibility and relevance. 

Our concern is that contractors who over-rotate toward “AI marketing” at the expense of foundational visibility may end up chasing vague engagement metrics and attribution guesswork rather than measurable service calls. 

It’s not that AI can’t influence decisions. It’s that it relies entirely on the strength of your existing presence, and today, it does not outperform the fundamentals responsible for the overwhelming majority of revenue. 

So if you’re already investing in your Google visibility, you’re not falling behind, you’re quietly future-proofing your business. The very signals that help you win in search today are the same signals AI systems are learning from. 

Keep doing the fundamentals that have always worked, now with a clearer understanding of why they matter more than ever: 

• Post regularly on your Google Business Profile. It signals activity and relevance.  

• Generate steady reviews. They don’t just build trust with humans; they build “reputation velocity” that algorithms can measure. 

• Earn local backlinks and citations. They reinforce your business authority across the web. 

• Write conversational service content and FAQs so both homeowners and AI systems can understand and recommend you clearly.  

AI isn’t replacing search; it’s learning from it. The visibility you publish today determines who gets surfaced tomorrow. 

“Right now, our data is showing that the majority of contractors aren't getting leads from LLMs, while the top 1% are getting meaningful performance. Just in November, we saw LLMs generate 37% as much revenue as Google Organic for the top performers. But what's most fascinating is what we saw in December: 24% of ChatGPT-source conversions (meaning these individuals were in ChatGPT, linked to a contractor website, and contacted that contractor) contained Google Business Profile medium and campaign attribution. That number was 18% for Gemini and 11% for Copilot. I tested the user experience myself and found that ChatGPT was pulling in the Google Business Profile to serve me my answers. My fundamental view remains that focusing on reducing as much friction as you can to get your prospects and customers the information they need (in the time of that need) does not change, regardless of the mediums they use to access that information. It's the content of those answers that is the driving force of conversion, and the root of that information was the GBP in 24% of ChatGPT-sourced conversions."  

That’s the bottom line. Feed the future, but don’t starve the present. 

The Trust Factor 

It’s also worth remembering that trust in digital advertising continues to fall. A 2025 study found that only 39% of consumers trust online advertising, down from more than half just a few years ago. Most users can now instantly identify sponsored results, and many intentionally scroll past them in favor of real businesses with a visible reputation. 

That’s why Google has no incentive to abandon its organic ecosystem. Its dominance is built not just on ads, but on credibility. And that’s where your revenue still lives. 

Practical Takeaway 

AI will not create trust where none exists. If Google doesn’t see your business as credible, consistent, and authoritative today, AI systems won’t either. 

So before shifting budget toward speculative AI funnels, keep investing where results are measurable now: your Google Business Profile, your local SEO footprint, and your online reputation. These assets feed your pipeline today and quietly prepare you for whatever interface homeowners use tomorrow. Because at the end of the day, AI may get the headlines — but Google still gets the calls.