“Heating season got off to a slow start with the 1% sales decline, but it was a difficult comparison,” said Brian Loftus, macroeconomic and residential market analyst at HARDI. “Five of our seven regions had double-digit sales growth during October of 2024 after the trail of damage left by hurricanes Helene and then Milton.”

The monthly sales survey also calculates distributors’ Days Sales Outstanding (DSO), a measure of how quickly customers pay their bills.

“The DSO for October was near 38 days. That is comparable to the pace we saw one year ago,” said Loftus. “The top-line growth could inspire concerns about economic vitality, but that is offset by the steady payment timeline by HARDI customers.”

The annual sales growth rate of survey participants has remained near 4% during 2025, or about flat in units, while monthly shipments declined by about 20% during June, July, and August, before a 33% collapse during October, the report said.

“Distributor inventories remain elevated after the flattish demand this year,” said Loftus. “The ordering pause has allowed the sales-to-inventory ratio to begin to recover, but it remains well below pre-Covid normal levels.”

HARDI members do not receive financial compensation in exchange for monthly sales data and can discontinue participation without prior notice or penalty. Participation is voluntary, and the depth of market coverage varies from region to region. An independent entity collects and compiles the data, which can include sales information about products not directly associated with the HVACR industry.