The pandemic prompted more homeowners to replace their HVAC systems, but now things are a little different. In 2023 and now the beginning of 2024, there’s been more of a shift towards the repair market. According to AHRI, shipments of unitary air conditioners and heat pumps were down 16.7% in 2023, compared to 2022. Gas furnaces were down 23%. This is due in part to higher costs of both HVAC systems and housing in general, as well as the sluggish home resale market and the cyclical nature of HVAC. This reflects the shipment cliff from 15 years ago, when the industry contracted 40% after peak shipments in 2005. Contractors cannot replace what was never installed. Regardless of why this change is happening, contractors need to adapt to this new “repair” economy. ACCA CEO Barton James said contractors can’t just assume people are going to reach into their pocket and replace their HVAC systems. Instead, contractors need to help customers with their current needs by repairing HVAC systems.

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