“The agenda of the Biden administration on decarbonization, electrification, is just — it’s out of control,” James said during a phone interview.

ACCA represents some 3,000 HVAC companies and roughly 60,000 professionals in the industry.

Being required to purchase high-efficiency condensing furnaces, which are more costly than other models and often require home modifications because of the need for sidewall venting, “doesn’t pencil out” for consumers in all cases, James said. In addition, he said, the rule could leave traditional residential gas water heaters “stranded” because they still need to be vented vertically; other critics have pointed out that some homes are constructed in ways that make sidewall venting difficult or even impossible

The DOE’s residential furnace rule, issued in late September, takes effect 60 days after being published in the Federal Register. Once effective, manufacturers will have five years to ensure that all new, non-weatherized residential furnaces meet the new 95% AFUE minimum.

DOE estimates that the efficiency rule, over 30 years, will cut carbon emissions from furnaces, which contribute to global warming, by 332 million metric tons, and will save consumers nearly $25 billion in energy costs.

“At the direction of Congress, DOE is continuing to review and finalize energy standards for household appliances, such as residential furnaces, to lower costs for working families by reducing energy use and slashing harmful pollutants in homes across the nation,” Secretary of Energy Jennifer M. Granholm said in a press release.

James said that, instead, the government should let the market decide.

“It should be consumer choice,” James said. “I have no doubt that the contractor is going to lay that (high-efficiency furnaces) out as an option.”

James also made a pitch for increased HVAC installation standards and greater enforcement of mechanical codes as ways to save energy.

“There’re great products out there that are really efficient if installed correctly,” he said.

Others in the industry had more muted reactions to the DOE rule.

“We were disappointed to see DOE finalize the rule; we don’t believe DOE properly evaluated the true cost to the consumers in the replacement furnace market,” wrote Alex Ayers, the director of government affairs at Heating, Air-conditioning & Refrigeration Distributors International (HARDI), in an email.

Ayers said the rule will drive “fuel switching” around the country as homeowners for whom replacing a furnace with a high-efficiency model isn’t feasible choose heat pumps instead.

“While heat pumps are a growing market on their own merits, this will effectively eliminate consumer choice for many homeowners and drive them to electrification,” he said.

At the Air-conditioning, Heating, and Refrigeration Institute (AHRI), which represents manufacturers, Francis Dietz, vice president for public affairs, said the group is not taking a position on the final rule. But, he said, it’s possible that the rule will prompt some consumers to keep older, less efficient furnaces longer than they would have otherwise, thus reducing the predicted overall energy savings that will be achieved through the rule.

“Time will tell if that is the case with this rule,” Dietz said in an email.

James, however, said he’s hopeful that the 95% AFUE rule will someday be overturned.

“I’m hopeful that common sense will prevail,” he said.

Is a reversal possible?

“Absolutely,” James said. “Nothing’s certain in D.C.”