Residential geothermal contractors have relied on tax credits since 2005, but the One Big, Beautiful Bill Act will end the 30% credit in 2025. A previous credit removal in 2016 caused a 45% sales drop, leading to pessimism for 2026. However, demand for geothermal remains strong.
Residential credits are set to sunset, but commercial geothermal continues to gain momentum thanks to not-yet-expiring tax incentives, innovation, and maturing tech. For HVACR contractors, the next wave of geothermal growth hinges on training and design expertise.