The latest shipment report from AHRI shows a sluggish start to 2026, with everything from electrification pushes to refrigerant transitions set to affect the coming year.
The latest figures from the AHRI show shipments of a/c units and heat pumps fell in November 2025 compared to the same time last year, while furnaces saw modest year-over-year gains.
The a/c and heat pump shipment numbers reflect some of the headwinds industry leaders discussed during last month’s Morgan Stanley Laguna Conference: low consumer demand, high interest rates, tariffs on imported products and materials, and the continuing fallout from the refrigerant transition.
The shipment data reflect a market still adapting to challenges presented by the transition to A2L-compatible equipment, a shortage of aftermarket R-454B for use by contractors, and uncertainty about the Trump administration's tariff policy.
In year-to-date comparisons, shipments of air-source heat pumps, a/c units, and both gas-fired and oil-fired furnaces were all up over the first four months of 2025 compared to the same period last year.
Combined Shipments of Central Air Conditioners and Air-Source Heat Pumps Up 23 Percent
March 18, 2014
United States shipments of central air conditioners and air-source heat pumps totaled 370,582 units in January 2014, up 23 percent from 301,176 units shipped in January 2013, according to Air-Conditioning, Heating, and Refrigeration Institute (AHRI) statistics.
Source: Air-Conditioning, Heating, and Refrigeration Institute (AHRI). Industry figures are estimates that are derived from the best available figures supplied by a sample of AHRI member companies.