Is Hanging Onto R-410A Like Carrying an Old iPhone?
EPA’s proposed sell-through extension for R-410A systems ignores the reality: The HVAC industry and its customers have already upgraded.
You drop your iPhone and the screen shatters. Fixing it will cost almost as much as buying new. Time for an upgrade.
But at the counter, there are no iPhone 17s in stock. Instead, the guy hands you a little iPhone 3G — the model we had back in 2008. It has the basics — Wi-Fi, GPS, texting — but there’s no selfie camera, no FaceTime, and it’s got a little 3.5-inch display screen. “Don’t worry,” he says. “When we ran out, we went back to making these. You’re covered!”
Hard to imagine that sale going well. Yet that’s essentially what EPA seems to be suggesting as the fix for this summer’s refrigerant shortage.
Posting on X late last month, EPA administrator Lee Zeldin blasted the Technology Transitions rule, hinting at extending the sell-through deadline for R-410A equipment. The rule is part of the AIM Act, which phases out high-GWP HFCs in new refrigeration, a/c, and heat pump equipment. Zeldin called the transition “frantic and rushed.”
“In turn, commercial costs at the grocery store went up, while residential access to affordable AC units, supplies, and maintenance became more difficult for the American people,” he posted. “The Trump EPA is now fixing it!” He teased a soon-to-come formal proposal focused on “preserving access to affordable refrigerants and HVAC [systems] by allowing companies to continue installing systems that have already been manufactured or imported into the U.S., while not forcing Americans to replace their whole HVAC system when only part of it needs to be replaced.”
‘Fixing’ it? Chuck White, vice president of regulatory affairs at Plumbing-Heating-Cooling Contractors Association (PHCC), isn’t so sure.
“’Just move the date’ seems like a really easy answer,” he told me on the phone in mid-September. “I don’t think it’s going to really alter the calculus much to change those dates or make extensions.”
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Why not? For starters, Zeldin’s idea assumes warehouses are full of unsold R-410A systems. White, who’s been talking with supply houses since the transition began, says that just doesn’t match reality.
“If there were warehouses out there that have matched systems that didn't get sold with old refrigerants, yeah, we could solve that,” White said. “Somebody may have, you know, an outdoor unit in one branch and an evaporator in another branch. But what we're seeing is that there just aren't huge stockpiles of equipment that were ignored. It's just not out there.”
Meanwhile, manufacturers have already moved to new refrigerants, distributors have moved with them, and many contractors have invested in new tools, vans, and training.
“And the manufacturers aren't going to back up and retool their lines,” White explained. “It's not like we turned the light off in the room and we just go back to the room, flip the light back on.”
Even if it were feasible, he added, it wouldn’t be cheap. Retooling, retraining, and recertification all add up — costs that land with contractors and, ultimately, their customers.
And at this point, White said, everyone’s moved on. According to HARDI distributor data, 86% of central ductless sales in July were A2L systems.
That, he said, is proof contractors are trying to do right by their customers.
“Because it would be easy to just, you know, find somebody that had all that stuff and go in and try and bargain basement, buy it all up, lowball people, make a bunch of money,” he said. Was there some of that? Maybe. But a number of contractors he spoke with said they actually returned their inventory and converted over right away, because they didn’t want to be putting their clients on ‘the old stuff’ when there’s no drop-in replacement for R-410A.
In other words, the outdated flip phone isn’t even supported by the manufacturer.
“At this pace, A2Ls will achieve full market penetration before the end of the 2025 cooling season,” HARDI wrote in a recent blog post. Delaying the install deadline “would not only lack justification but also misrepresent market conditions.”
The takeaway: sell-through or no sell-through, HVAC has already moved on.
“We did what we should,” White said, “only we did it too well.”
So well that when the refrigerant distribution crunch hit this summer, the tide had already turned. The child’s foot couldn’t be shoved back into the baby shoe.
Meanwhile, ACCA isn’t convinced a deadline extension would make it through U.S. bureaucracy in time to help.
“Whatever EPA announces, it’s important to understand that any changes are likely to be challenged in court and states may step in with regulations of their own, so contractors would be well-advised to clear their R-410a inventory by year-end regardless,” said Sean Robertson, ACCA’s vice president of membership, advocacy, and events.
And that’s the irony. Regardless of what EPA decides, there’s little chance that pushing a date forward on paper will rewind the real-world transition. Deadlines moved the market, and then the market set a new bar.
So if Washington comes around waving old technology and calling it a solution, chances are, HVAC shrugs. Contractors know their customers expect the iPhone 17.
