EQUIPMENT SOURCING: The chart on the left shows the average breakdown in the various sources of residential HVAC equipment, as reported by contractors in yearly surveys since 2021. The chart on the right, from the same surveys, shows how contractors, on average, expect those sources to break down in five years. (Courtesy of myCLEARopinion Insights Hub)

Some 70% of contractors who responded to the 2025 survey said their customers bought either “a lot more” or “somewhat more” equipment online over the previous 12 months, compared to 64% in 2024, 66% in 2023, 62% in 2022, and 69% in 2021. At the same time, in 2025, 32% said that trend had a positive impact on their business, while 25% said the impact was negative and 43% said there had been no impact. 

HVAC business experts call this the “Amazon Effect,” and say it can be a positive. 

“These trends show that homeowners want more control, more convenience, and more transparency in the buying process,” said Paul Redman, president of Contractor Commerce, which offers online shopping platforms for contractors. “That is useful because it tells contractors exactly where the market is going.” 

Chris Lollini, chief reputation engineer at Reputation Igniter, an online business marketing platform, said contractors can adapt to the internet purchasing trend by embracing the digital side of the business and positioning their firms as trusted resources. 

“If a contractor isn’t present during that initial discovery phase, they lose both the equipment margin and the advisory role,” Lollini said. “To adapt, contractors must transform their digital footprint from a Yellow Pages listing into a resource hub that captures high-intent shoppers before they hit the checkout button on a retail site.” 

Online equipment sales can highlight the value of good contractors, said Chris Hunter, principal industry advisor at ServiceTitan, co-founder of Go Time Success Group, and a former contractor. 

“Contractors shouldn’t be selling boxes — they should be selling expertise. The real value contractors bring is system design, proper installation, warranties, and long-term service,” Hunter said. “Customers may buy equipment online, but they still need someone who knows how to make the system work.” 

The trend toward online purchasing by homeowners is linked to their requests for installation-only services. 

In the 2025 survey, 14% of contractors reported that customers “always” requested the installation of products they’d already purchased, and 61% said customers “sometimes” asked for such services. In such cases, the survey found, customers had on average purchased the equipment online 44% of the time, from big-box retailers 30% of the time, and from wholesalers 26% of the time. 

Redman and Hunter said the “installation only” trend carries risks for contractors. 

“The challenge is that when a contractor doesn’t control the equipment selection, they also lose control of system design,” Hunter said. “The system may not be sized correctly, matched properly, or even compliant with local code.” 

“If the wrong unit was purchased, or it is not the best fit for the home, the contractor is the one standing in the living room explaining the problem,” Redman said. “No one wants this, not even the consumer.” 

Redman said contractors can adapt by not fighting consumer behavior, but redirecting it. 

“Consumers clearly want to go far into the process online. They want transparency, speed, and confidence before talking to someone,” he said. “The answer is to let them do that on the contractor’s own website.” 

That means, Redman added, offering upfront pricing, clear options, visibility in financing, and a path toward purchasing online directly through the contractor rather than a third party. 

Lollini agreed. 

“The winners will be those who move upstream in the digital journey, showing up with expert content when the customer is still asking, ‘What size unit do I need?’ rather than after the unit is already in the driveway,” he said. 

Contractors, too, are buying residential HVAC equipment online, and say such purchases will make up an even greater proportion of their stock in years to come, the study found. However, distributors and wholesalers are still the main equipment sources for contractors, accounting for more than half of all purchases, and contractors expect that to remain the case for at least the next few years. 

“Wholesalers still provide huge value — inventory, technical support, training, warranty help, and relationships. That local support network is hard to replace,” said Hunter. “What is changing is how contractors buy. Even when equipment ultimately comes from a distributor, the ordering process is becoming more digital and streamlined.” 

The future, Hunter added, will probably see a hybrid purchasing model, with strong contractor-distributor relationships but also more online ordering and digital purchasing tools. 

The 2025 survey found that about 62% of responding contractors said they’d bought “a lot more” or “somewhat more” equipment online over the previous 12 months, up from 58% who said that in 2024. Contractors made 10% of their purchases, on average, from online sources in 2025, down from 12% in 2024 but below the average of 16% they expect to hit in 2030, the survey said. 

Respondents averaged 58% of their purchases from wholesalers and distributors last year, and said they expect those sources to account for an average of 53% of purchases by 2030. (Retailers, manufacturers’ representatives, and manufacturers themselves were the sources for the rest of the equipment purchases.) 

“I do not think wholesalers are disappearing,” Redman said. “They are still central to the market, and the survey reflects that.” 

The latest myCLEARopinion residential brand awareness study covers several other topics, including contractors’ satisfaction with specific brands, the importance of different factors in brand selection, and brand familiarity. 

Purchase the full study from myCLEARopinion Insights Hub.