An evaluation of Bureau of Labor Statistics data by Andrej Karpathy, an AI researcher who previously served as director of AI at Tesla and co-founded OpenAI, shows the HVAC and plumbing industry is relatively safe from being taken over by AI. For the next generation of workers, this provides a haven in a shaky job market. 

"More people are realizing that careers in the trades offer something a lot of modern jobs don't: stability," said Michael Petri, owner of Petri Plumbing, Heating, Cooling & Drain Cleaning in New York. "These are essential services people will always need, and that makes this path especially appealing in today's uncertain job market." 

The BLS reports there are about 40,100 openings for HVACR installers and mechanics each year, on average, for the next 10 years. The chaotic economy isn’t making things easier, either, with the construction industry seeing modest employment growth of 0.7% in March 2026 compared to March 2025.  

Even if HVAC is safe and offers plenty of opportunities, contractors still face some critical issues that hinder their hiring efforts. 

"Closing the skilled trades gap is critical not just for our industry, but for the communities that rely on these services every day," Petri said. "Encouraging more people to enter the trades helps ensure homeowners continue to get the reliable service they depend on while creating long-term career opportunities." 

Randstad analyzed more than 150 million job postings in the U.S. from 2022 to 2026 to find the biggest hiring obstacles facing companies today and what they can do to close skilled trades gaps. 

Skill and Generational Gaps 

CAREER STABILITY: Michael Petri, owner of Petri Plumbing, Heating, Cooling & Drain Cleaning in New York, explains why more workers are turning to HVAC and plumbing careers.

Technology is a double-edged sword for the next generation. They have AI to turn to and an innate familiarity with the latest technology, giving 82% of Gen Z members the confidence that they can quickly learn new skills. 

However, Randstad reports 31% of younger talent said they left jobs in the past year due to a lack of advancement opportunities, meaning companies need to shift their focus from reactive hiring to strategic hiring practices. 

“Based on this information, create a talent strategy that promises schedule autonomy, long-term skill upgrades, and flexibility in decision-making, knowledge transfer, and taking stock of the facility,” Randstad wrote in its report. 

Mapping out clear progression paths for potential hires makes it easier to show recruits you’re willing to invest if they’re willing to stay. Around 47% of operational talent say they would quit a job if they weren’t offered a learning and development roadmap.  

For HVAC companies, this could take on the form of apprenticeships and regular skill evaluations. Instead of relying on a resume, Randstad’s report encourages using skill testing to determine a candidate’s potential. 

The report states 38% of U.S. employers cite inflation and economic uncertainty as their top challenge, which pushes skilled workers to leave their jobs. To prevent this, the report suggests filling urgent talent gaps with expert trades talent on a contract payroll. 

“This talent mix protects your operational continuity without inflating fixed costs,” the report says. 

That flexibility will serve contractors two-fold. Nearly half of the U.S. operational workforce voted for work-life balance as a decisive factor in accepting a job offer. Naturally, the work required by HVAC workers doesn’t lend itself to remote work. Randstad’s report suggests compressing weekly schedules and making rotations more predictable for workers, giving them a sense of stability.  

Creating a company culture that values its workers and instills safety as a priority goes a long way as well.  

“We focus on maintaining a company culture that attracts top talent,” said Chris Petri, operations manager at Petri Plumbing, Heating, Cooling & Drain Cleaning. “We also invest heavily in service and technical training to develop our own skilled labor in-house.” 

If using AI to help find new hires, Randstad suggests using it to weed out “weak resumes” and work out complex schedules. AI can’t, however, replace human intuition, so contractors will want to rely on their own gut and experience when seeking skilled workers. 

“For your skilled trades talent, the highest-stakes moments still require a human who can sense when something is off,” the report said. 

Pairing AI with HVAC 

AI can play a role in bridging the gap and help contractors do more with less as they seek out recruits. Randstad suggests that HVAC contractors communicate how their staff can leverage AI’s assistance, such as automating estimation follow-ups or lead management, to streamline operations. 

At Petri Plumbing, Heating, Cooling & Drain Cleaning, the company uses an AI answering service to handle overflow, ensuring calls are promptly answered even during busy times. 

“Our dispatch and CRM application has been transformative. It provides in-depth reporting that allows us to track performance and operate efficiently,” said Chris Petri. “Additionally, it tracks client history, which enables us to provide service to the highest standards.”