Electricity demands and power bills are rising, driven by data centers, manufacturing, and electrification. Also playing a role is the grid itself, built to handle short periods of peak usage, but most of the year goes untapped.   

“It’s like building an airplane that only flies with full passengers a few times a year,” said Ian Magruder, executive director of Utilize. “That excess capacity is hiding in plain sight, and new technologies give us the opportunity to unlock it.” 

That shift could be significant enough to reshape the role of HVAC systems in the U.S. energy landscape. Heating and cooling account for a significant share of peak electricity demand, and smart, connected systems are positioning HVAC equipment as a key tool in managing when and how energy is used.  

“Flexible, intelligent energy systems have a significant role to play in improving grid performance,” said Hakan Yilmaz, president at Carrier Energy and chief sustainability officer at Carrier Global. “Smart heating and cooling solutions can help manage peaks and maximize existing infrastructure, reducing the need for costly overbuild.” 

Research cited by Utilize sheds even more light on the opportunity. A Duke University analysis found the U.S. grid operates at roughly 53% of capacity on average, suggesting room to meet additional demand without the need for major infrastructure expansion. 

For any contractor who may be thinking, “Oh great, just another transition to adapt to,” it may not be as disruptive as it sounds.   

“The impact on the installation process for battery-enabled HVAC systems is minimal,” said Yilmaz. “The installation process remains largely consistent with established practices, particularly for those experienced in variable-speed heat pump applications. Comprehensive training will accompany the solution rollout, ensuring contractors are well-equipped. The system design is intentionally aligned with current replacement installation workflows, making the transition smooth and helping to minimize any friction for contractors.” 

Technologies that may gain more traction through this shift are smart thermostats, connected heat pumps, and battery-enabled systems that can adjust energy use based on grid conditions. 

“Battery storage and distributed energy resources are already demonstrating how smarter use of the grid can improve affordability,” said Colby Hastings, senior director of residential energy at Tesla. “These technologies can help meet demand during the most constrained hours, while avoiding the need for additional generation and grid infrastructure investments.” 

With utilities and policymakers looking to better leverage existing capacity, new business opportunities for HVAC contractors are bound to arise.  

“Carrier sees an opportunity for battery-enabled HVAC to help solve for utilities needing more flexible and dispatchable load,” Yilmaz said. “And, with Carrier’s installed base potentially providing up to 100 GW of flexible load with battery-enabled HVAC integration, the technical skills and touchpoints needed by contractors become even more critical. By playing a central part in deployment of these next-generation systems, contractors will have opportunities to unlock new installation and service revenue streams.” 

The effort also aims to address concerns that the growing demand for electrification and thus, increased utilization could overburden the grid.  

In fact, that’s why Yilmaz said Carrier joined the coalition — because improving grid utilization makes it easier to support electrification while keeping the system reliable and affordable. 

“While electrification growth projections put increased strain on the grid, improved system utilization can accelerate the adoption of electrification measures by relieving distribution system bottlenecks,” said Yilmaz. “Homes are becoming active participants in the energy system, not just energy consumers. Heating and cooling drive a large share of peak electricity demand, and with smart HVAC controls, connected systems, and automated load management, homes can help shift some electricity use away from peak hours.” 

To illustrate the magnitude of the opportunity, Utilize said it will soon release research conducted by The Brattle Group showing that improved grid utilization could save U.S. consumers $100 billion on electricity bills over the next decade. 

Early policy adoption is already underway. In Virginia, legislation backed by some coalition members would require utilities to measure and incorporate grid utilization into planning decisions — a model Utilize is looking to replicate in other states. As those policies expand, they could continue to accelerate demand for grid-friendly HVAC technologies — placing contractors on the front lines of the country’s evolving energy infrastructure through the systems they install that provide a way to support grid performance.