The NEADA’s estimates show natural gas is up 9.5%, electricity up 14%, and heating oil up 4.4% this winter compared to 2024-2025. 

Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have pushed heating oil to its highest levels since 2022, prompting the International Energy Agency to release a record 400 million barrels of oil from its emergency reserves to address the disruptions. 

Despite this, prices remain volatile. As of March 12, heating oil prices surged over 7% past $3.96 per gallon, the highest since June 2022, as risks that refined product supply from the Persian Gulf will remain halted due to the Strait of Hormuz situation. 

With the NEADA reporting more than 210 electric and natural gas utilities already increasing rates or proposing rate increases within the next two years, HVAC contractors want to be prepared to provide customers with solutions that meet their heating demands and potentially save them some cash. 

“These increases may be an inconvenience for higher-income households, but for low- and middle-income families, they are devastating,” said Mark Wolfe, executive director of NEADA, in a written statement. “Millions of households that were getting by are now being driven into utility debt and toward shutoffs because they cannot afford to keep their homes warm.” 

Helping Customers 

Nate Adams, founder of Nate the House Whisperer, said one easy answer for contractors looking to help customers is to recommend a hybrid or dual-fuel system. 

“If you've got either gas or propane or fuel oil, but then you have a heat pump stacked on top, you can run whichever one is cheaper that year ... they’re seesawing pretty hard the last few years,” he said. 

In that regard, he said the wholesale cost difference between an a/c and the same model heat pump is usually around $300 to $1,000. He said contractors can emphasize to customers how that difference in price could be offset by a couple of reduced winter heating bills, though he acknowledges there are challenges to overcome. 

“Most replacements are emergencies, so people are getting hit with a $10,000 expense they weren't prepared for, or even a $20,000 expense. So that little extra bit of money to go from an a/c to a heat pump can oftentimes kill the deal. But I think it should be offered, and I think it's a legitimate option,” he said. 

Replacing systems with high-efficiency or electric can create higher price points, causing customers to balk even if they recognize the long-term benefits. A solution is to offer financing. Butch Welsch, owner of Welsch Heating & Cooling Co. in St. Louis, Missouri, said his company’s close rate rose from 77% in 2024 to 83% in 2025 with the help of financing. 

“We put it into place about three years ago, and it’s a growing business for us,” he said. “It increases the monthly bill some, but when you can finance it over a period of time, it softens the blow of having to write a $5,000 bigger check, and that’s helped our process of trying to get people to go to the higher-efficiency equipment.” 

Contractors can also educate customers, big and small, about energy choice. This allows customers to choose their utilities to find the best price. It is currently available in 30 states and the District of Columbia, according to the American Coalition of Competitive Energy Suppliers. 

“If you have supplier choice, definitely look at it,” Adams said. “You can look to see what the options are … like now would be the time to lock your summer electric rates, and then for winter you want to lock your gas prices over the summer.” 

Welsch’s company tends to recommend 90% or higher efficient furnaces to help customers realize energy savings. In places where natural gas isn’t the right fit, electrical options are available, though not always optimal. It highlights the need for contractors to know their market’s energy sources to serve their customers best. 

“We’ve done analysis on it, and if you can get natural gas, a high-efficiency, natural gas furnace in this area is the way to go,” he said.