Earnings season is officially in the books for the HVAC industry — and the fourth-quarter results show a market moving in different directions. On the residential side, Carrier reported Q4 sales in the Americas down nearly 40%, as weak housing activity, heavy channel destocking, and a shift toward repairs instead of full system replacements drove the decline. Carrier leadership said that inventories are now largely reset and expects replacement demand to gradually recover — though the first half of 2026 could remain challenging. Trane Technologies told a similar residential story, intentionally cutting factory production to normalize inventory. Revenues declined in the mid-teens, but executives emphasized that pricing discipline held steady. Commercial HVAC, however, is a different story. Trane posted 22% growth in bookings and ended the year with a record $7.8 billion backlog, driven by strong demand for applied systems and services. Carrier also pointed to double-digit commercial growth helping offset residential softness.

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