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Surprising Trends From California Heat Pump Research

An HVAC Minute Video Update: July 17, 2025

California has big plans for heat pumps — aiming to install 6 million by 2030 and ban new gas-powered heaters that same year. But a recent study from the California Energy Commission and UC Davis reveals that the path to electrification might be more complicated than expected. Researchers retrofitted 10 homes with R-454B heat pumps and found wide variations in performance, largely influenced by occupant behavior. While cooling efficiency improved in most homes, heating costs actually went up in five out of eight cases — sometimes by as much as 27%. With electricity rates rising faster than gas, the long-term affordability of heat pumps could slow adoption, especially in existing homes. Still, the study found promising results for carbon reduction.

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Hannah Belloli is editor-in-chief of Plumbing & Mechanical and Supply House Times. She brings six years of experience as a trade journalist with BNP Media, including four years as an editor at The ACHR NEWS and two years with Walls & Ceilings. Hannah holds a bachelor’s degree in communications from Wayne State University, where she also earned minors in English, journalism, and creative writing. As the daughter of a carpenter, she has long held an appreciation for the skilled trades and the professionals who drive the industry forward.