The context: OEMs in February were trying to align their production, and distributors and contractors their purchasing, with regulations that kicked in at the beginning of the year and that say only a/c units and heat pumps that use refrigerants with a GWP of less than 700 can be manufactured or imported.

February was also the first full month for the Trump administration, which paused, at least temporarily, Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) rebates for certain high-efficiency HVAC products, and began talking about increasing tariffs on imports, both for finished products and for components for domestically assembled HVAC units.

The bright spots: Shipments of natural gas furnaces totaled 259,405 in February, up nearly 21%, from 214,961 units, over the same month last year. Shipments of oil warm-air furnaces were up more than 20%, with 2,931 shipped in February 2025 compared to 2,434 units shipped in February 2024.

Air-source heat pump shipments were up more than 3% over February of 2024, with 293,760 units shipped this February compared to 284,612 during the same month a year ago.

The down side: Shipments of central a/c units during February 2025, at 342,542, were down a little more than 3% from February 2024, when 372,897 units were shipped.

Shipments of residential gas storage water heaters in February were down more than 5% year-over-year, with 376,403 unit shipped compared to 397,529 units in February 2024. Residential electric storage water heater shipments were down more than 6%, with 425,332 units shipped this February compared to 454,577 units shipped during the same month in 2024.

Helicopter view: Year-to-date shipments of furnaces, air-source heat pumps, a/c units, and residential gas storage water heaters were up for the first two months of the year, however, compared to the same period in 2024. Shipments of residential electric storage water heaters were down in January and February compared to the same two months last year.

Gas furnaces led the way, with 530,785 shipped in 2025 through February, compared to 431,047 during the first two months of last year. That's an increase of just over 23%. Oil furnace shipments were up more than 15%, with 5,842 shipped through February 2025 and 5,064 shipped through February of last year.

Year-to-date shipments of a/c units were up about 11% compared to the first two months of 2024, with 689,899 shipped through February of this year compared to 620,932 through February of 2024. Air-source heat pump shipments rose more than 10%, from 515,951 units in the first two months of 2024 to 569,304 units through February of this year.

Shipments of residential gas storage water heaters were up slightly in the first two months of the year, at 748,027 units, compared to 744,553 units through February 2024. Residential electric storage water heater shipments fell just over 5%, with 825,053 shipped during the first two months of 2025 compared to 871,640 during the same period last year.