Opening Session

The opening general session featured Robert Bolton, current MCAA president, who spoke about some of the HVAC industry's recent struggles and how MCAA membership can assist members in overcoming these obstacles.

“From the global financial crisis of 2008 that led to the great recession, to the more recent 2020 COVID pandemic, which seems like a gift that keeps on giving, to workforce shortages, inflation, and supply chain backlogs. And now let’s throw in a little banking crisis,” he said. “Being able to weather these recent headwinds is a reminder of why we are members of the MCAA.”

Bolton cited his own experience, noting that as a 25-year member of MCAA, the association has played a significant role in his company's success. He added that MCAA has also been successful in accomplishing its objectives set at the beginning of the year, which included boosting the representation of women and minorities and shining a light on safety and mental health issues.

“We've increased representation both in the office and the field, which is a fancy way of saying we've done a better job of recruiting women and minorities to our business, and just as important, making sure they feel valued,” said Bolton. “I have to give a lot of credit for that to our Women in the Mechanical Industry (WiMI) committee members, who have done an outstanding job providing the network professional development, mentoring, and education opportunities for women as they pursue a career in our industry.”

He emphasized that fostering an inclusive atmosphere is a shared responsibility among all MCAA members, as it strengthens the association as a whole. As an organization or an industry, it also entails ensuring that each individual feels appreciated and accepted as a valuable team member.

“That means it's on all of us to call out inappropriate behavior,” said Bolton. “If you see something, you need to say something. Make your workplace better for you and everyone who comes in after you and not just the ones who look like you. That's how we recruit and retain the best talent, which — at the end of the day — is a benefit to all of us.”

As for safety, Bolton said MCAA has produced several videos, as well as collaborated with trusted partners to help industry stakeholders better understand building risks and to help workers protect themselves from heat stress. He added that mental health problems are also a big concern in the industry and that more needs to be done to address them.

“We know people are struggling. We know they're not alone and that they can get the treatment they need without fear of shame,” said Bolton. “That's why the MCAA, along with NECA, SMACNA, and TAUC, is recognizing National Suicide Prevention Awareness Month this September. The alliance has created a new chip stamped with 988 that will connect callers who need help to the National Suicide Prevention Lifeline.”

 

Dirty Jobs

Keynote speaker Mike Rowe then regaled the audience with the wild story of how the show “Dirty Jobs” came to be. It’s a long and convoluted (and hilarious) tale that outlined everything that can go wrong when filming a television show in the sewers of San Francisco — including Rowe landing face-first in the “chocolate tide.” But the Discovery Channel liked the segment and ordered 39 episodes of “Dirty Jobs,” which focuses on strange, messy, or difficult jobs. The success of the show allowed Rowe to launch mikeroweWORKS, a foundation/PR campaign designed to reinvigorate the skilled trades.

Rowe explained that the idea for the foundation came about in 2008, when “Dirty Jobs” was the No. 1 show on the Discovery Channel, and the U.S. was beginning to slip into a recession. He recalled reading the paper each day and seeing unemployment numbers rising precipitously. Yet while traveling around the country for “Dirty Jobs,” he’d see ‘help wanted’ signs everywhere.

“We had record high unemployment, and all these companies struggling to hire. It just seemed like there was another narrative going on in the country,” said Rowe. “I always grew up believing that the way to fix unemployment is to create more jobs, and then more people just … well, I think everybody in this room knows that's not quite how it works. So I started mikeroweWORKS, which make a persuasive case for — at the time — the 2.3 million jobs that existed that nobody seemed to want.”

The foundation, along with fans of “Dirty Jobs,” built an online resource so that anyone could explore careers in the trades — careers that didn't necessarily require a four-year degree. Rowe reported that the foundation gives away several million dollars each year in work ethic scholarships.

“We purposely look for people who want to learn a skill that's in demand, not [get] a four-year degree,” he said. “We look for people who want to master the careers like what my pop had and lots and lots of other men and women. We've assisted over 1,500 people so far with about $6.5 million dollars. And we're starting to move the needle.”

 

Recession Talk

Given some of the challenges mentioned earlier by Bolton, it is no wonder that many in the HVAC industry are concerned about the possibility of a recession this year. In one session, called “Rock the Recession,” entrepreneur Matt Radicelli offered advice on how to prepare for, thrive during, and create wealth after the next recession.

He said that in order to thrive, rather than just survive, a recession, company owners need to engage four gears. The first gear is assessment, where contractors benchmark their company’s preparedness for a recession, which includes answering questions about various aspects of a company’s financial health and leadership capabilities.

“The second gear is to tune it up. To make sure that the company and our personal lives are in the shape that they need to be, because we need to take care of ourselves before we can take care of those around us,” said Radicelli. “Third gear is to race — to make sure our company culture is the best it could possibly be. This means measuring and tracking all of our employees’ productivity as best we can. And lastly, accelerate. Put all the actions, all the plans, all the things we've learned in place and go for it. That way we can rock the next recession.”

Speaking of the next recession, it will likely appear later this year, said Anirban Basu, chairman and CEO of Sage Policy Group, in a session entitled, “Show Me the Money (Supply).” Basu said his forecast is based on higher interest rates, inflation, and other indicators such as the inverted yield curve and a declining Architectural Billings Index, all of which suggest that the economy may be slowing down.

“I think recession conditions will prevail somewhere in the next 12 months, and it’s likely that in the third quarter of this year, we’ll be in recession. At least that's my forecast,” he said.

As for the duration and severity of the recession, Basu thinks it will be mild but that it may last longer than anticipated due to the political environment.

“With a presidential election in 2024, the federal government is not going enact a stimulus package, I don't think,” he said. “Even if they assess there's economic weakness, with all this talk about the debt ceiling, national debt, etc., there will likely not be a stimulus package. In addition, the Federal Reserve's monetary policymakers are not in a position to stimulate the economy, because they’re waging the war on inflation. So you put that all together, and we’re likely to enter a recession later this year, and it may last into the first half of 2024.”

Basu added that the labor shortage will also continue to be an issue, noting that the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) indicates that as of January 2023, there are 10.8 million available unfilled jobs, which is an all-time high. “We have in this country 1.9 job openings for every unemployed American. If you want a job in America, there are two … the heart of this problem is the fact that the U.S labor force is simply not expanding.”