“The sales gain this month was not a surprise, but it is not normal just because ten of the past twelve months have been increased by at least 20%,” said HARDI Market Research and Benchmarking Analyst Brian Loftus. “This has occurred only fifteen times during the past ten years. The unusual growth began with the very easy comparisons versus the COVID interruptions, then received an extra boost by the extraordinary price increases that are being passed through. What goes up must slow down and it looks like this annual growth rate line has peaked.”

The Days Sales Outstanding, a measure of how quickly customers pay their bills, was 43.2 days at the end of February 2022. “The February 2022 DSO is comparable to February 2021. This rate is considerably better than the pre-pandemic norm for February in the 49-day area,” said Loftus.  

“The exceptional TRENDS performance has been following the exceptional jobs recovery,” said Loftus. “March was the eleventh consecutive month with more than 400,000 jobs added. The six-month average number of number of jobs added was 600,000 through January and February. This has led to higher demand which leads to higher prices. Now interest rates are starting to recover, and this TRENDS growth rate line will be rolling over. What goes up, must slow down.”

HARDI members do not receive financial compensation in exchange for their monthly sales data and can discontinue their participation without prior notice or penalty. Participation is voluntary, and the depth of market coverage varies from region to region. An independent entity collects and compiles the data that can include products not directly associated with the HVACR industry.