July 16, 2008: World Energy Use to Grow 50 Percent by 2030, Says EIA
The report also includes a “high price” case that appears to more closely resemble today’s trajectory of oil prices. In this scenario, world energy use grows by 44 percent between 2005 and 2030, but petroleum use declines by 2 percent. Meanwhile, renewable energy use grows by nearly 73 percent, and biofuels production increases to 4.2 million barrels per day by 2030. And although high oil prices will also encourage the development of unconventional resources, such as oil sands, the high price case yields a lower increase in greenhouse gas emissions, rising by 43 percent between 2005 and 2030.
The EIA also released its Annual Energy Outlook 2008, which includes the same scenarios but focuses on the United States. Under the reference scenario, U.S. energy use grows by 19 percent between 2005 and 2030, while petroleum use increases by only 9 percent and ethanol use increases by a factor of 6. Hydropower increases by only 11 percent, but biomass energy, excluding biofuels, more than doubles, while other renewable energy sources more than triple. In the high price case, petroleum use drops by 2.1 percent, the growth in ethanol use and hydropower production stay essentially the same, biomass energy nearly triples, and the growth in other renewable energy sources stays the same.
Publication date: 07/14/2008