Last year was a record year for unitary shipments, according to ARI, as the 6,807,262 units shipped in 2003 marked a 1-percent increase over 2002. (See "Unitary Shipments Set Record in 2003," Feb. 23, 2004.)

The improvement in unitary shipments, however, goes beyond weather conditions. Looking at the big picture, industry experts point to the political and social horizon.

"When comparing April 2004 with the same month a year ago, it is helpful to remember that [in 2003] America had just embarked on the war in Iraq, consumer attention was focused on the war, and the unemployment picture was negative," commented Ed Dooley, ARI's vice president of communications.

"A year later, there is dramatic improvement in the economy with almost 1 million jobs created since February, the largest three-month increase since the boom period of early 2000," he said.

"Although mortgage rates are rising due to the expectation that the Federal Reserve will increase short-term rates in June, mortgage rates are historically low and new housing is strong, as are replacements shipments.

"Looking forward, it is possible, with average monthly employment gains of 235,000 jobs, to see the employment deficit of the past several years wiped out," he concluded. "This would reinvigorate commercial construction, too."

Key Statistics