At the same time, gas-fueled heating systems for housing units completed in 2024 were at their lowest market share since 1985, at 38%, according to the Census Bureau. By comparison, the market share of gas heating in homes completed in the year 2000 was 65%, the BDC report says.

In addition, heat pump sales outpaced sales of gas and other fossil-fuel furnaces by 32% during the first three months of 2026, and almost as many heat pumps (about 960,000) were shipped during the same period as air-conditioning units (about 980,000), according to monthly reports from the Air-conditioning, Heating, and Refrigeration Institute (AHRI). Heat pump sales have more than doubled in the last 15 years, according to the BDC, from 1.8 million units shipped in 2010 to 3.64 million in 2025.

The BDC report also cited energy affordability as a key political issue for this fall’s midterm elections, noting that data centers, climate policy, and utility company profits and rate cases are all part of the affordability debate. Residential gas and electricity bills rose by a median of about 17% between 2019 and 2024, the BDC said.

For the BDC, the momentum behind heat pump adoption and the affordability issue create opportunities for decarbonization and revising energy policies. The BDC opposes what it calls “expensive and unnecessary” expansion of natural gas delivery infrastructure, saying that doing away with that spending could cut utility costs.

“Buildings are central to securing long-term energy affordability,” said Kristin George Bagdanov, the BDC’s associate director of research, in a press release. “Failing to include building decarbonization policy in energy platforms indicates that a candidate doesn’t have a holistic approach to ensuring that households can afford to heat and cool their homes. This is a basic necessity and an issue that families are facing day to day with real financial as well as health consequences.”

The BDC report also noted several energy-related political developments, including:

• New legislation focused on energy affordability and consumer protections, with 22 bills introduced in 12 states so far this year and 10 of those passed into law.

• Proposals in 12 states and Washington, D.C., that would remove subsidies for gas system expansion.

• The use of thermal energy networks to support local economies. A network in Hayden, Colorado, the BDC said, is projected to help local businesses save energy and help the community transition away from fossil fuels after the planned closure of a local coal plant.