Housing Continues to Recover at Modest Pace
Leading Markets Index shows nationwide average running at 93 percent of normal activity
WASHINGTON — Markets in 79 of the approximately 360 metro areas nationwide returned to or exceeded their last normal levels of economic and housing activity in the third quarter of 2015, according to the latest National Association of Home Builders (NAHB)/First American Leading Markets Index (LMI). This represents a year-over-year net gain of 17 markets.
The index’s nationwide score edged up to .93, meaning that based on current permit, price, and employment data, the nationwide average is running at 93 percent of normal economic and housing activity. Meanwhile, 69 percent of markets have shown an improvement year-over-year.
“Housing markets are improving gradually as the economy strengthens and job creation continues,” said Tom Woods, NAHB chairman. “In especially encouraging news, markets most affected by the downturn posted the largest year-over-year increases in their LMI score. This shows that the recovery is taking hold in those areas.”
“The employment metric of the LMI is making solid gains, with the number of metros that reached or surpassed their norms rising by 32 in a year,” said David Crowe, NAHB chief economist. “Single-family permits keep inching forward, but remain at only 47 percent of normal activity, and continue to be the sluggish component of the index.”
“The number of markets on this quarter’s LMI at or above 90 percent has risen to 175 — almost half of all markets nationwide,” said Kurt Pfotenhauer, vice chairman of First American Title Insurance Co., which co-sponsors the LMI report. “This is a strong indicator that the overall housing market continues to make headway, and bodes well for the rest of the year.”
Baton Rouge, Louisiana, continues to top the list of major metros on the LMI, with a score of 1.53 — or 53 percent better than its last normal market level. Other major metros leading the list include Austin, Texas; Honolulu; Houston; and Oklahoma City. Rounding out the top 10 are San Jose, California; Los Angeles; Charleston, South Carolina; Nashville, Tennessee; and Salt Lake City.
Looking at smaller metros, both Midland and Odessa, Texas, have LMI scores of 2.0 or better, meaning that their markets are now at double their strength prior to the recession. Also at the top of the list of smaller metros are Manhattan, Kansas; Casper, Wyoming; and Grand Forks, North Dakota; respectively.
For more information, visit www.nahb.org/lmi.
Publication date: 11/11/2015