Aira, a Swedish green energy tech startup, is working to make that a reality. The company, which operates in Europe and just expanded into the UK, aims to get countries off fossil fuels by making heat pumps affordable to the general public. Taking a cue from companies like Spotify and Netflix, Aira sources its own heat pumps, then sells them on a subscription-based model: a 10-year service guarantee and a monthly fee that includes installation and maintenance. And there’s zero upfront cost to the homeowner.

“The No. 1 hurdle for many consumers is the high upfront costs of buying and installing a heat pump. So we’re removing that. We’re providing a hassle-free, one-stop shop experience,” said Aira chief executive Martin Lewerth in an interview with The Guardian. “It’s a confidence guarantee. If the heat pump doesn’t work, or if you need to repair or maintain it, it’s on us.”

Aira sees residential HVAC as a major opportunity to drive the green transition — even more so then EVs, another major consumer-facing hallmark of the electrification movement. In the European market, 10% of total emissions come from residential heating. In the UK, it’s 16%, and in the U.S., it’s 20%. However, in Scandinavia, which transitioned away from fossil fuels in the ‘80s and ‘90s, that number is just 1%. Compared to electrifying a passenger car, replacing a gas boiler is twice as effective for reducing CO₂ and only 20% of the cost, the company noted. And even with its notoriously cold winters, Scandinavia has seen success with the transition to heat pumps, Lewerth pointed out.

In the time since Aira launched in the UK in late 2023, Särefjord reported strong demand from UK customers, who’ve cited lowering their energy bills as their top reason reason for joining the heat pump subscription program — even ahead of environmental benefits.

“We expect that the average UK family can save 25% on their energy bills by getting a heat pump,” Särefjord said. HVAC energy costs are one of the average household’s biggest bills, so saving money and cutting emissions by 75% is a win-win, he said.

“We think this is how it becomes accessible to the many,” said Daniel Särefjord, Aira UK CEO, in an interview with The Yorkshire Post. “It should not be a very big capital investment; it should be an accessible service.”

Aira said it’s aiming to invest £300 million, create 8,000 new jobs, and install more than a million heat pumps in UK homes over the next 10 years. The company purchased Sheffield-based All Seasons Energy and plans to open a new academy to train hundreds of heat pump installers who will service the region.

While Aira’s heat pump subscription program isn’t currently operating in the U.S., HVAC leasing programs, while still not the norm, have cropped up here and there in the past few years. In 2021, Johnson Controls tested a 10-year residential HVAC leasing program called York Ultimate Home Comfort,, which would have provided homeowners with a fully-installed HVAC system with no money down, plus a factory-backed 10-year parts and labor coverage and 10 years of service repair and annual maintenance, all for a monthly payment starting at $165. While the program was discontinued in 2022, York does have a preferred vendor, Comfort Connect, that offers similar leasing services through its Premier Program.

A look at two recent data points suggests a subscription-based heat pump model might fare well in the U.S. market. According to AHRI shipment data, sales of heat pumps outpaced sales of furnaces for the first time in 2022. And according to a recent study by Clear Seas Research for The ACHR NEWS, homeowners are already primed for this type of payment setup. If a homeowner’s HVAC equipment is financed, the survey reports, they’re willing to pay between $100 and $300 a month.