HVAC Market Positioned for Another Year of Above-Average Growth
Stars are aligning for the residential HVAC market, while the commercial market is seeing a steady recovery
LONDON — The global HVAC equipment market is positioned for another year of above-average growth, with the fundamentals in place for the United States that are the best in over 10 years, according to a report from Chisult Insight Co. Ltd. On this front, the research report stated that the stars are aligning for the residential HVAC market based on higher employment, lower gas prices, and higher consumer confidence, with better price/mix and lower raw materials costs, while the commercial market is seeing a steady nonresidential recovery.
The underlying trends are now firmly above the electrical equipment and multi industry (EE/MI) sector average and should be sustainable, noted Chisult. From a macro perspective, the industry is mostly immune to concerns around currency-related competitive risks.
Potential upside comes from continued release of pent-up demand and better weather compared to a cool summer in 2014. While the buying impact from 13 SEER should reduce reported Air-Conditioning, Heating, and Refrigeration Institute (AHRI) shipment volume numbers by 8 percent in 2015, 14 SEER is positive which benefits margins and sales.
Chisult said the U.S. commercial HVAC market remains a more straightforward call, where about 5 percent growth in 2015/16 is based on an ongoing nonresidential construction recovery (6-7 percent growth) and a stable 4 percent replacement market. Ductless continues to be the talk of the industry, a market that could come to represent 15 percent of the industry for both residential (approximately 10 percent) and commercial (approximately 5 percent).
OEMs were able to realize solid pricing gains in 2014, with most companies announcing low- to mid-single-digit price increases for 2015.
More information on the report, “Research on Global & US HVAC (Heating Ventilation and Air Conditioning) Industry, 2015,” is available here.
Publication date: 8/10/2015
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