Manufacturer Reports

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Manufacturers expect residential sales to remain challenging in 2026, while commercial HVAC demand continues to show strength.

Will 2026 be the year of the refrigerant bounty? 

After a year dominated by refrigerant chaos and shifting codes, contractors say 2026 finally feels familiar. But beneath the surface, price pressure, labor shortages, and AI are reshaping how they sell, staff, and serve their markets.  

The Air-Conditioning, Heating & Refrigeration Institute data show that heat pump, a/c, furnace. and water heater shipments all fell in October in comparison to the same month last year.

December will be another month of increasing cost pressures. Most changes fall in the 2-8% range, though some brands issued “various” adjustments across product groups. Activity was steady throughout December, with no price reductions reported. 

The 2026 AHR Expo Trend Report shows contractors juggling refrigerant shortages, expiring tax credits, rising heat pump demand, AI tools, and a shrinking workforce. 

In response to the shift toward low-GWP refrigerants, several manufacturers have introduced convertible coils that are designed to operate with multiple refrigerants.  

Pricing across the HVAC/R supply chain continued to drift upward in November

Nearly 1.1 million fewer air-source heat pumps and central a/c units were shipped in the U.S. this year, through September, than were shipped during the first nine months of 2024.