Opinions


Punish the forecasters

June 1, 2000
/ Print / Reprints /
ShareMore
/ Text Size+
America faces some very unpleasant energy challenges. Consider some of the problems that confront us: an aging stock of generating capacity, a consistently rising demand for electricity, the failure of renewable energy sources to alleviate the problem, and — most ominous — our inability to wean ourselves from the unreliable OPEC oil suppliers.

The nation is also blessed with some very smart people to analyze these and other challenges and offer prescriptions. These are “big picture” people: authoritative, articulate, and eager to think expansively about the vast horizons of business, natural resources, and geopolitical trends.

These experts are also, alas, consistently wrong, as in the utterance by Barry Commoner published in the Oct. 9, 1980 New York Times. But this does not prevent them from continuing to pontificate, even in the face of their own horrible track records. In this contrarian world, the more inaccurate the forecast, the greater the credibility.

We therefore propose national legislation whose title tells it all: The National Experts’ Forecast Scorecard and Liability Act (NEFSLA). The Energy Department, a co-conspirator in much of the past erroneous forecasts, would, as a penance, be required to administer NEFSLA.

It’s a small-budget program, requiring only a handful of minimum-wage clerks to scan the media, books, and Internet for bad-news forecasts. The clerks would pay special attention to the New York Times, Fortune, Scientific American, and other gullible publications that have been so hospitable to the hysterics in the past.

For the punitive phase, the forecasts’ time horizons — months, years, decades — would come into play. The longer the horizon, the greater the penalties. The offending parties (you know who you are) would be fined, but lightly, on an ascending scale.

In addition to fines, NEFSLA envisions community service as a punishment. The guilty would be required to read to others in large groups from the works of Julian Simon, Peter Drucker, and other iconoclasts whose debunking of the various “crises” proved valid.

Just as generals are said to be always fighting the last war, the forecasters are fighting the last blip on the energy scene.

You must login or register in order to post a comment.

Multimedia

Videos

Image Galleries

2013 ACCA Conference & IE3 Expo

Photos from the 2013 ACCA Conference & IE3 Expo in Orlando, Fla.

Podcasts

Cade Clark, assistant vice president of government affairs for the Air-Conditioning, Heating & Refrigeration Institute (AHRI), gives a brief overview of the new version of the Shaheen-Portman bill, what AHRI thinks of the energy-efficiency legislation, and how it might affect the HVACR industry if it becomes law.
More Podcasts

THE MAGAZINE

ACHRNEWS

NEWS 05-20-13 cover

2013 May 20

Check out the weekly edition of The NEWS today!

Table Of Contents Subscribe

HVAC LEASING

Some HVAC contractors have introduced leasing programs for consumers. Do you think this is a viable option?
View Results Poll Archive

Clear Seas Research

Clear Seas ResearchWith access to over one million professionals and more than 60 industry-specific publications, Clear Seas Research offers relevant insights from those who know your industry best. Let us customize a market research solution that exceeds your marketing goals.

DON'T MISS A THING

Magazine image
 
Register today for complete access to ACHRNews.com. Get full access to the latest features, Extra Edition, and more.

STAY CONNECTED

facebook icontwitter iconyoutube iconLinkedIn i con