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November Sales Indicate Strong Finish to 2010, Possible 2011 Challenges

February 14, 2011
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COLUMBUS, Ohio - Heating, Airconditioning, and Refrigeration Distributors International (HARDI) announced North American HVACR average distributor sales as back on track after regressing in October. HARDI’s Monthly Targeted and Regional Economic News for Distribution Strategies (TRENDS) report showed average growth for November 2010 of more than 20 percent versus November 2009. The running 12-month sales improved for the fourth consecutive month nearing the top end of HARDI’s projections for 2010 growth of 5 to 10 percent. Canada maintained its top spot for the highest level of running 12-month growth among all HARDI regions.

“While I’m extremely proud of the significant role HARDI played in securing an extension of the 25C tax credits for HVAC and other residential improvements, their extension was only possible with a significant reduction in the credit amount,” said Talbot H. Gee, HARDI executive vice president and COO. “This combined with the long delay in Congress’ extension certainly seems to be creating a ‘tax credit bubble’ in which 2011 demand has been pulled into 2010. This is great for our members last year, but does not bode well for our industry the first quarter of this year.”

“The latest numbers from HARDI distributors are very encouraging; however, a word of caution is worthwhile given the outlook for housing, end of the tax credit, and the outlook for the commercial industry,” said HARDI chief economist, Alan Beaulieu of the Institute for Trend Research.

“Banks are beginning to lend more commercially but housing will be an ongoing lending issue. We would suggest that too much not be read into the numbers. A straight-line projection at this point could be disastrous.”

Publication date: 02/14/2011

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