The EIA's "International Energy Outlook 2006" boosts the projected cost of oil in 2025 to $57 per barrel (a 35 percent increase over last year's projection), causing a decrease in oil demand and a shift to natural gas and coal. But petroleum demand is still projected to grow significantly, reaching 118 million barrels per day in 2030, a 47 percent increase above the petroleum demand in 2003. The United States, China, and India cause more than half of the projected growth in oil demand.

In the EIA reference case, which does not include policies to limit greenhouse gas emissions, energy-related carbon dioxide emissions increase from 25 billion metric tons in 2003 to 43.7 billion metric tons in 2030, with developing countries accounting for three-quarters of the projected growth.

Publication date: 07/03/2006