HVAC Breaking News / News

April 2, 2012: U.S. Economic Recovery Forecast to Continue in 2012 and 2013, Adding 5 Million Jobs

April 2, 2012
/ Print / Reprints /
ShareMore
/ Text Size+
ANN ARBOR, Mich. — America’s economy will continue its recovery this year and next as it adds nearly 5 million jobs and unemployment falls below 8 percent, according to University of Michigan economists.

“The performance of the U.S. economy during much of 2011 did nothing to alter the perception that we were mired in a sluggish recovery,” said economist Joan Crary. “Indeed, by late summer economists were considering the likelihood of a double-dip recession.

“The economy regained some momentum during the fall, however, with the closing quarter registering some of the best economic readings of the year. Although the economy is growing at a subpar rate to begin 2012, we expect the pace of economic activity to accelerate over the next two years as the economic headwinds that have plagued the recovery begin to abate.”

In their annual spring forecast update on the U.S. economy, Crary and colleagues Daniil Manaenkov and Matthew Hall forecast that employment will rise at a moderate pace, consumer spending will increase, the housing market will pick up, and inflation will remain in check in 2012 and 2013.

They predict that payroll employment will rise by 2.5 million jobs during 2012 and 2.3 million during 2013, an average of 200,000 jobs per month.

Unemployment is expected to edge downward from the current rate of 8.3 percent to about 8 percent by the end of 2012 and to 7.7 percent a year later.

Crary and colleagues project economic output growth (as measured by real gross domestic product) of 2.3 percent during this year and 2.6 percent during 2013 — up from 1.6 percent last year.

They note that real nonresidential fixed investment was a major driver of growth in 2011 and continues to be over the forecast horizon, rising by $113 billion in 2012 and $116 billion in 2013.

“Investment is continuing to lead the country out of the recession as consumption growth remains sluggish and government purchases continue to be a drag on the economy,” Crary said. “Investment in nonresidential construction turned around in 2011. It then accelerates in 2012 and 2013, offsetting slower growth in the equipment and software sector, which remains strong but grows at a more sustainable pace.”

The University of Michigan economists also said that residential building is beginning to show signs of life. Single-family housing starts — at an all-time low of 430,000 units last year — will increase by about 100,000 units this year and then reach about 730,000 units in 2013.

Publication date: 04/02/2012

Did you enjoy this article? Click here to subscribe to The NEWS Magazine

You must login or register in order to post a comment.

Multimedia

Videos

Image Galleries

2014 MCAA Annual Convention

Scenes from the 2014 MCAA Annual Convention in Scottsdale, Ariz.

Podcasts

NEWSmakers: Julian Scadden

Training is an ongoing process. Julian will discuss how you can generate maximum return on time and energy invested training by following a three part process. Listen to this podcast to get expert tips on training, tracking and follow up. 

More Podcasts

THE MAGAZINE

ACHRNEWS

NEWS 04-14-14 cover

2014 April 14

Check out the weekly edition of The NEWS today!

Table Of Contents Subscribe

SERVICE CALLS POLL

Which statement on service calls best applies to your business?
View Results Poll Archive

HVACR INDUSTRY STORE

plumbing-hvac.gif
2014 National Plumbing & HVAC Estimator

Every plumbing and HVAC estimator can use the cost estimates in this practical manual!

More Products

Clear Seas Research

 

Clear Seas ResearchWith access to over one million professionals and more than 60 industry-specific publications, Clear Seas Research offers relevant insights from those who know your industry best. Let us customize a market research solution that exceeds your marketing goals.

DON'T MISS A THING

Magazine image
 
Register today for complete access to ACHRNews.com. Get full access to the latest features, Extra Edition, and more.

STAY CONNECTED

facebook icontwitter iconyoutube iconLinkedIn i con