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Statistics Say Volatile Year

March 24, 2008
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LAS VEGAS - According to the Construction Inflation Alert released by the Associated General Contractors of America (AGC), nonresidential construction is expected to experience wide variance in demand, materials cost, and labor availability.

“In 2008, some nonresidential segments will continue to grow, including power and energy, but others such as lodging will slow or decline,” said Ken Simonson, AGC’s chief economist. “Diesel, copper, and steel are among materials costs likely to accelerate, while others remain benign.”

The report cautioned that the large increase in diesel fuel prices compared to a year ago will likely increase costs. What was described as a “slumping demand and rising supply of gypsum products” however, might imply that nonresidential and multi-unit residential building costs will go up a little less than 6 percent, noted the report.

“These cross-cutting trends make it likely that the PPI for construction inputs will accelerate from the 4.5 percent rate of increase that prevailed in 2006 and 2007 to a 6-8 percent range by the end of 2008,” commented Simonson.

Looking further to the future, he also noted that there are two factors making it likely that a 6-8 percent growth rate for construction input prices will be sustained. “First, many construction inputs, such as diesel fuel, steel, and copper are in demand worldwide,” he reported. “Second, construction will always be dependent on physical delivery of heavy, bulky, relatively low-value materials for which transportation and fuel costs are a major part of the delivered price.”

Labor also accounts for roughly one-half the cost of a construction project. According to the report, in 2007, despite the high level of nonresidential activity, contractors were generally able to find enough workers due to a massive redeployment of specialty trade contractors from residential to lighter nonresidential projects.

“In 2008, I expect labor shortages will worsen for a few crafts, pulling average wage rates higher, but in other segments such as residential specialty trades, the supply of some crafts will be plentiful,” noted Simonson. “Wage increases in nonresidential construction may rise to the 4.5-5.5 percent range in 2008, despite the slowdown in overall activity, and to 5-6 percent in 2009, when residential work begins to compete again for some specialties.”

For more information, visit www.agc.org/cia.

Publication date: 03/24/2008

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