CLEVELAND - Demand in the United States for HVAC equipment is forecast to increase 3.2 percent per year to $16.8 billion in 2011. Advances will be primarily driven by strong gains in new nonresidential construction, along with ongoing growth in the residential replacement market. Although gains will be restrained by declines in new single unit housing completions between 2006 and 2011, nearly three-quarters of HVAC demand is attributable to replacements. These and other trends are presented in “HVAC Equipment,” a new study from The Freedonia Group Inc., a Cleveland-based industry market research firm.

According to the report, in 2006, heat pumps surpassed warm air furnaces to account for the largest share of heating equipment demand and will account for 47 percent in 2011. Heat pumps are expected to post the strongest gains through 2011. Heat pump demand benefits from the ability of these units to provide efficient heating and cooling in moderate climates and to serve as a low cost supplementary heat source in colder climates. While warm air furnaces will continue to account for the second largest share of heating equipment sales through 2011, this segment is expected to lose market share over the period. Sales will be supported by their relatively low initial cost.

Unitary air conditioners will remain the largest segment in the cooling equipment industry, accounting for more than 70 percent of total demand in 2011. Absorptive liquid chilling systems are expected to post the strongest gains through 2011 as industrial and commercial construction rebounds over the forecast period. Packaged terminal air conditioner sales will achieve above average gains because of a rebound in lodging construction expenditures. Room air conditioners will also post above average sales as quieter and more efficient units become available

Publication date: 02/25/2008