'Dr. Copper' Flashing Mixed Signals for Contractors
Copper prices settle above $5.00 per pound, still far from their $4 pre-pandemic average
INSIDE: Inside Nibco’s copper manufacturing facility, the hum of production echoes an industry in flux.
As aluminum prices soar, copper is telling a different story for the HVAC and sheet metal industries – one marked by uncertainty and stubborn volatility.
Once hailed as an economic barometer, “Dr. Copper” is now flashing mixed signals. After hitting highs above $6.00 per pound in late 2025, copper prices have retreated, settling at around $5.51 per pound as of Thursday. That is still well above pre-pandemic and early 2020s averages, which hovered between $4.00 and $4.50 per pound – but the trend is heading down, driven by weak global growth, persistent inflation, and the Federal Reserve’s decision to keep rates steady.
Construction numbers echo the malaise. Nonresidential spending has fallen for four straight months and is now down 8% from the December 2023 all-time high. “Most private construction segments are no longer expanding,” said ABC chief economist Anirban Basu. “The ongoing decline in computer and electronic manufacturing construction is especially notable. With CHIPS Act megaprojects wrapping up, that sector has seen spending plunge nearly 40% over the past year and a half.”
Pockets of Resilience – and Risk
It is not all bad news. Data center construction is still climbing, with a 2% spending bump in January, and copper remains in demand for electrification, infrastructure, and digitalization projects. But these bright spots just are not enough to offset the slump elsewhere, Basu said.
Basu warns that ongoing instability – especially the Iran conflict – could keep materials prices jumpy and squeeze contractors further. “This lackluster performance is especially concerning in light of the ongoing conflict in Iran, which will ignite materials price escalation and heighten already elevated levels of economic uncertainty,” he says. Even with a slight rebound in ABC’s construction backlog indicator, Basu cautions, it “may be a difficult first half of 2026 for many contractors.”
What It Means for Contractors
With copper’s price swings and supply chain headaches, smart purchasing and inventory management are more important than ever. The March 2026 HVAC Price Increase List from ACHR News shows manufacturers are already passing higher copper costs down the line.
In this environment, staying nimble – and informed – may be contractors’ best defense.
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