Unitary air conditioner imports comprise only a small share of demand in a given year, but the substantial size of the market for this equipment results in a high value of imports in dollar terms.

Shipments of air conditioning equipment are projected to advance 2.7% annually to $9.7 billion in 2023. Domestic manufacturers will continue to supply the vast majority of air conditioning equipment used locally. However, imports are expected to continue to account for a larger share of demand, especially as equipment manufacturers evaluate the cost savings of relocating production operations to nations with low production costs such as Mexico. Such activity will result in a widening US trade deficit.

Freedonia also reports that the US demand for all heating, ventilation, and air conditioning (HVAC) equipment is forecast to increase 3.9% per year through 2023 to $25.1 billion, a deceleration from the rate of the 2013-2018 period.

"The majority of expected demand increases will continue to stem from the replacement of existing equipment that has reached the end of its operational lifespan with better performing, and typically higher value, equipment," according to Freedonia. 

For more information about the Freedonia Group's research into the HVAC market, visit freedoniagroup.com.